Under 21 European Championships / Tobias Gourlay / 11 June 2011 /

Stuart Pearce's England begin their Denmark 2011 campaign against the tournament favourites. Tobias Gourlay expects a game of few goals

Spain

Spain have taken a strong squad to Denmark. They have a couple of World Cup winners - Valencia's Juan Mata and Athletic Bilbao's Javi Martinez - and five players schooled in Barcelona. You might also have heard that the goalkeeper, David de Gea, is quite promising.

Luis Milla's tactics are informed by those successfully employed by Vicente del Bosque's senior team - keeping the ball is very important to them. If everyone is fully motivated, solid defence and prodigious attack make them worthy tournament favourites.

England

Stuart Pearce has decided to keep his team and his tactics a secret - perhaps even from the players themselves. That no one is sure who his captain will be reflects a dearth of outstanding candidates and the lack of experience in his squad. Pearce's own experience of the competition - this is his third U21 European Championship - is an important factor. If the team is properly committed to his cause, they could go far.

Without Andy Carroll, Jack Wilshere, Kieran Gibbs and Micah Richards, Pearce can chose from players with only two senior international caps between them. You can probably expect to see most of the players du jour - Jordan Henderson, Phil Jones, Daniel Sturridge, etc. - in the starting lineup.

Match Odds

Spain are [2.10] favourites to take three points and seriously diminish England's hopes of making the last four, even though England beat them 2-0 at the last tournament in Sweden.

Pearce's men are also the number-one ranked U21 team in the world, but that is a reflection of consistency - they are the only nation to have qualified for each of the last three U21 European Championships - not extraordinary talent. Spanish midfielder Thiago Alcantara's comments to the effect that he had not heard of any of the England players should help Pearce with his team talk.

Over/Under Goals

Spain played 10 games to get here. Six of them went Over 2.5 Goals. Half of England's 10 qualifying matches went the same way. Over 2.5 Goals is a [2.20] shot for this match.

Remember, however, that the Spanish commitment to keeping possession is at root a defensive tactic. If you keep the ball, there's no way your opponent can score.

Creative players are abundant in Milla's squad and brilliant moments are always possible, but how daring will anyone be in the opening match of a difficult group?

England are quick and strong, and could be dangerous counter-attackers. But both teams would be content with a draw, so it is easy to imagine the tiki-taka being more horizontal than vertical on Sunday evening. The goalless draw is [12.0] in the Correct Score market and offers a much longer alternative to Under 2.5 Goals at [1.80].

Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.80]
Recommended Bet: Back 0-0 Correct Score @ [12.0]

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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