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European Under-21 Championships: England v Czech Republic

Under 21 European Championships RSS / / 18 June 2011 /

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The Czech Republic are more likely than England to be celebrating on Sunday night

The Czech Republic are more likely than England to be celebrating on Sunday night

"The Czech Republic went unbeaten through ten matches to get to Denmark and the market seems to have overreacted to their defeat by a much-improved Spain team"

Tobias Gourlay worries for England's future ahead of this must-win last group match

England

Two games in and Stuart Pearce does not know his best team. England have to win this match to qualify for a semi-final and that might have helped clarify his thoughts, but he is apparently still not sure.

Michael Mancienne will probably captain again from the unfamiliar position of central midfield. Needing a win this time, not just another draw, Henri Lansbury - if fit - might replace Jack Rodwell alongside Mancienne.

The defence stood firm against Ukraine and new clubmates Chris Smalling and Phil Jones will pair up again in the centre. At the other end of the pitch, Daniel Sturridge alone has made a lasting good impression. If you fancy England to do well, he is the man to follow in the goalscorer markets.

Czech Republic

Jakub Dovalil's team will qualify for a semi-final with a win, but could also go through with a draw, so long as Spain do not lose to Ukraine.

Midfielder Lukas Vacha is suspended, but highly rated Sparta Prague striker Vaclav Kadlec is now fit to start and offers an interesting alternative to the unwieldy Tomas Peckhart.

Borek Dockal, the captain who scored twice against Ukraine, gives the Czechs a panache in midfield that England lack.

Match Odds

Dovalil was coach of a Czech U19 team that beat their English counterparts 2-0 on home soil in the 2008 U19 Euros. Bertrand, Sinclair, Rose and Sturridge started that game and might start this one.

England are [2.12] favourites, however. Take the teams' performances against the Ukraine as a benchmark - a lacklustre goalless draw for England, a win and a dominant second-half display for the Czechs - and that price looks a little short.

The Czech Republic went unbeaten through ten matches to get to Denmark and the market seems to have overreacted to their defeat by a much-improved Spain team. The best thing to do here is oppose England. You can do that by laying them in the Match Odds market, backing the Czechs in the Draw No Bet market or giving them a +0.5-goal start on the Asian Handicap.

If you are involved with the Czechs in the Winner market, you might want to sit tight on this one. If they avoid defeat, you can then think about laying them off.

Over/Under Goals

Under 2.5 Goals is a [1.77] favourite. It has paid out in both of England's matches so far and one of the Czechs'. Both defences are usually solid, but, while we don't know Pearce's team or strategy, it is difficult to say whether the price is right.

England have created only a few chances in the tournament to date, but if Lansbury plays and Scott Sinclair replaces Danny Rose, they might be a little more productive. Sturridge is also a threat to an under-goals bet.

Best Bet: Lay England @ [2.14]

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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