Scottish Football / John Girvan / 02 October 2009 /

Rangers have fallen behind in the race for the Scottish title and Sunday's grudge match at home to Celtic offers the blue half of Glasgow an opportunity to peg back three priceless points. That's not to say that they actually will win the match but it should at least have goals in it, says John Girvan.

Rangers' third consecutive SPL draw proved costly last week. The Gers were backed in a match odds double with Hearts and also -1.5 goals in the Asian Handicap but they failed to score yet again. Hamilton's late consolation meant it was money back for Hearts -1 at Tynecastle and it was a similar story in Paisley where although St Mirren couldn't stay within a goal of Celtic, the 2-0 win meant a return for Under 2.5 goals.

Profit/Loss: +3pts

Sky Sports have been punting it all week so you don't need me to tell you Celtic visit Ibrox this Sunday.

When the fixtures were announced it looked a difficult start for Tony Mowbray. The aim in the Celtic camp would no doubt have been to leave Ibrox, seven games into the campaign, still in touching distance. But whilst Rangers have stuttered of late, Celtic have come through a tough start with a four point advantage. This could be extended to seven come Sunday and this would put Celtic firmly in the driving seat.

The visitors will have been watching with interest as Rangers shipped four Champions League goals at home to a classy Sevilla side on Tuesday night. Rangers could easily have been awarded a penalty at 0-0 and actually played quite well in spells but the nature of one or two of the goals they conceded will give Celtic encouragement. They themselves were held to a 1-1 draw at home to Rapid Vienna on Thursday however, so perhaps both sides are looking at each other and thinking they are there for the taking.

Walter Smith has four major injury concerns ahead on Sunday. Kenny Miller and Kyle Lafferty returned to full training on Friday but Lee McCulloch missed out due to a flu bug and Kevin Thomson has a sore knee. His counterpart has virtually a full compliment however with Aiden McGeady coming through Thursday unscathed and Barry Robson, whose physical presence is a boost, also making a late substitute appearance.

This one could hinge on Tony Mowbrays' tactics. It's not in his make-up to sit back and settle for a point, perhaps something his predecessor might have done in this position, and so with Rangers really needing a win to cut the gap it makes for an open game. There was only a solitary goal in each of the last three Ibrox meetings but with both sides not looking so defensively watertight of late, there could be a change in this trend which may make Over 2.5 goals worth backing at [2.26].

Season long traders will be watching the 09/10 Winner Market closely. Celtic are current favorites at [1.61] whilst Rangers sit out at [2.68]. Old Firm games affect these odds the most so there should be a change after Sunday. If the season progresses in a similar fashion to the last few, then these will be susceptible to continuous change and there is certainly money to be made by trading the market on a weekly basis.

In 12 league meetings covering the last three seasons there have been seven home wins, two draws and three away wins. Therefore backing the home side in the DRAW NO BET Market has just a 25% loss rate, so who can argue with Rangers at [1.7]?

Another question with regards to Sunday is will anyone be willing to back the 0-0 draw at [10.5]? This would be Rangers' fourth in a row in the league and amazingly this has accumulative odds of over 10,000/1!

Elsewhere Motherwell should record their third win of the season by defeating Falkirk at Fir Park. Jim Gannons' tenure has started positively with win at Dundee United and a home draw with Rangers. Their only defeat came at home to Hibs last week who exploited the gaps left by their high full-backs. Falkirk don't have the same quality as Hibs however and shouldn't get in behind as easily.

Motherwell kick-off as odds on favorites at [1.8]. Those who look at trends might have noticed that this is the eighth time this season a non-Old Firm side has been odds-on for a home match. Home wins were recorded in all seven of these and few will bet against The Steelmen making it eight.

Recommendations:

Rangers v Celtic: Rangers (DRAW NO BET) @ [1.7] (3pts)

Rangers v Celtic: Over 2.5 goals @ [2.26] (1pts)

Motherwell @ [1.8] (1pts)

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