Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 05 March 2010 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet View Market

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week's English-based bet comes from the depths of League Two...

"In fact, Morecambe have lost fewer games overall than Bournemouth, which is a sign of the visitors’ solidity and indicates that the gap between the two sides in the table might not be an accurate reflection of their respective class."

Lay Bournemouth at [1.95] v Morecambe

Away from the glamour of the FA Cup, this battle of two seaside towns is a crunch game in the League Two promotion race. Bournemouth's overall home record looks good on paper, ranking fifth in League Two, but it has been on a downward spiral since they opened the season with six wins out of seven. They have won only four of their last 10 at home and they could find life difficult against Morecambe, whose last 10 away games have brought three wins, four draws and just three defeats. In fact, Morecambe have lost fewer games overall than Bournemouth, which is a sign of the visitors' solidity and indicates that the gap between the two sides in the table might not be an accurate reflection of their respective class.

Lay Wolfsburg at [1.53] v Bochum

Wolfsburg have been a pale shadow of the team that stormed to the Bundesliga title last season, based mainly on an outstanding home record that saw them drop just two points out of 51, and they look vulnerable again. They have won only four out of 12 at home this season and their main problem has been a leaky defence, which has kept only one home clean sheet and just three in 24 league games overall. Wolfsburg have won only three of the 11 home games in which they conceded, while Bochum have lost just two out of seven when they scored, winning four. In the past three months, Bayern Munich are the only team to have let Bochum score and still win, which indicates difficulty for Wolfsburg if their defence concedes again.

Lay Malaga at [1.68] v Xerez

Putting faith in the worst team in Spain's Primera Liga might seem like madness, but it's not as crazy as backing Malaga at short odds-on. Xerez have taken only three points on the road, but those three draws came in their six away games against bottom-half opponents, which indicates a reasonable chance of taking something from 14th-placed Malaga. Even more encouraging is the form Xerez have shown under new coach Nestor Gorosito, which arguably has not been turned into points only because four of their six games for Gorosito have been against top-seven sides. The key turnaround has been in their scoring - only Real Madrid have shut them out in the past six games - and that has enabled them to beat Mallorca and push high-flying Deportivo and Bilbao all the way. Malaga rank fourth-bottom on home form, with just four wins out of 12, and victory here might not be as straightforward as the odds suggest.

Tags: Bundesliga odds, League two fixtures, League two football, Morecambe Town, Wolfsburg