Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 30 April 2010 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet View Market

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets......

"Mancini’s greater emphasis on defence may have reined in City’s attacking prowess and that could be a factor in reducing their win prospects."

Lay Manchester City at [1.93] v Aston Villa

Villa are the form team among the clubs battling it out for fourth place, with four wins and a draw from their last five league games, and they also arrive as the only team that can rival Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal on away form. Villa have won nine away games - three more than any other team outside the top three - and just as significantly they have lost only four out of 18, which is the joint-lowest number of defeats on the road. City's home form remains strong, but under Roberto Mancini they have not performed so well in their toughest home games - one draw and two defeats from three against teams in the top eight, with no goal scored in those games. Mancini's greater emphasis on defence may have reined in City's attacking prowess and that could be a factor in reducing their win prospects.

Lay Hannover at [1.94] v Borussia Monchengladbach

The difference between these two sides in the Bundesliga table is 11 points and Monchengladbach's better form was emphasised by recent results against Bayern Munich: Monchengladbach had a home 1-1 against the leaders last week, whereas Hannover were thrashed 7-0 at Bayern a fortnight ago. Hannover's long-term deterioration in form - 15 defeats out of 21 since the end of October, with just three wins - does not entitle them to be odds-on even though they are desperate for victory and Monchengladbach are safe. Monchengladbach's recent form is decent, with only two defeats in six despite a tough run of fixtures, and this is their easiest game in almost two months.

Lay Malaga at [1.95] v Sporting Gijon

This is a key relegation battle in the Primera Liga, with Malaga two points clear of the drop zone in 17th place and Gijon just three points ahead in 14th, and you have to wonder whether Malaga have it in them to win. They are winless in seven and have only one victory from their last 11, a poor run that owes much to their problem in scoring goals. They have scored nil or one in 23 of their 34 games, winning only one of those, and are likely to have difficulty beating Gijon in a low-scoring game. Gijon have lost only five out of 20 when restricting the opposition to fewer than two goals and they have taken at least a point even in several of the games when they have conceded twice. The visitors are on a run of four straight defeats but overall their record against bottom-half teams is better than Malaga's, who have won just two out of 17 in that category.

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