Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 04 December 2009 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet View Market

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week he's taking on odds-on shots in England, Spain and France.

"The market is just in favour of a low-scoring game at Ewood Park, but the stats point strongly towards a decent number of goals."

Lay under 2.5 goals at [1.98] in Blackburn v Liverpool

The market is just in favour of a low-scoring game at Ewood Park, but the stats point strongly towards a decent number of goals. Both teams rank in the top seven for games with over 2.5 goals this season - Liverpool have had 10 out of 14 (71%) and Blackburn nine out of 14 (64%) - even though their respective away/home percentages are slightly lower (both 57%).

Blackburn have kept only three clean sheets (with just one, in the 0-0 at home to Stoke, against a team above them in the table) and they have conceded heavily against the big four this season - six at Arsenal, five at Chelsea, two at Manchester United and two (or three, including extra-time) at home to Chelsea in their midweek Carling Cup tie. Liverpool themselves have kept only one clean sheet in seven away games and that was in last week's 2-0 derby win over Everton, when Pepe Reina's goal led a charmed life.

Lay Villarreal at [1.84] v Getafe

Villarreal appear to have improved after a dreadful start to the season and they go into this match on a run of six wins and just two defeats in all competitions, yet doubts persist about whether they can re-establish their place among the Spanish elite following the departure of Manuel Pellegrino, the coach that took them to unimagined heights.

Villarreal have won only three out of 12 in the league under Ernesto Valverde and those victories were all against teams in the bottom six, so there has to be a doubt about their ability to get the better of ninth-placed Getafe. The visitors' record is black and white - six wins and six defeats from their first 12 games - but they are far from inconsistent.

Four of the defeats were against teams in the top six, which leaves six wins out of eight against the rest of the division. Villarreal would have to be still a potential top-six side to justify the odds and, on this season's evidence, it is far from certain that they are.

Lay Rennes at [1.96] v Lorient

There are several surprise names near the top of France's Ligue 1 and one of them is fourth-placed Lorient, who have been a mid-to-low-table side in the three previous seasons since rejoining the top flight (finishing 14th, 10th and 10th). Lorient have been much more solid this season, losing just three of their first 14 games (only Lyon, with two, have had fewer defeats), and their record against teams outside the top six is won seven, drawn three and lost two. That gives them a good chance at Rennes, who have picked up most of their points against struggling teams - four of their five wins were against the bottom four, with just one win in 10 against the rest of the division.

Tags: football betting, football odds, football tips, Lyon fixtures, Pepe Reina, Premier League betting, Steven Gerard