Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 18 December 2009 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet View Market

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week he's making a case for Birmingham City and an Italian side who resembles them.

"Only three teams have conceded fewer goals than Alex McLeish’s side and just three have accumulated more points against teams outside the top eight."

Lay Everton at [1.93] v Birmingham

Birmingham have reached the heady heights of seventh in the Premier League with distinctly Evertonian qualities: hard work, solid defence and maximisation of their points haul against lower-placed teams. Only three teams have conceded fewer goals than Alex McLeish's side and just three have accumulated more points against teams outside the top eight. In that category, Birmingham have won eight and lost only two out of 11, yet the odds indicate that many punters haven't bought into that form.

Perhaps they're right, but on the other side Everton's four wins this season have been against the teams placed 12th, 14th, 19th and 20th and until their recent draws with Tottenham and Chelsea they had struggled to take points off top-half teams. Everton could be improving and still might be a better team than Birmingham, but backers are paying a premium to find out.

Lay Genoa at [2.02] v Bari

Bari are the Birmingham of Serie A - a promoted team performing above expectations in 10th place. Even though they are a low-scoring team, they have achieved good results based on solid defence and being hard to beat. They are three places below Genoa but are level on points with their hosts in the congested mid-table of Serie A and, having lost just four of their opening 16 games, should be tough to break down again.

They have taken something from seven of the nine games in which they have scored, so it is encouraging that they have scored in their last five and that Genoa have kept only one clean sheet in eight home games. Genoa are a good home side, but a notable factor against them is that, home and away, they have played eight of the top 10 defences in Serie A (Bari rank second in that category) and won only once.

Lay Napoli at [1.94] v Chievo

Napoli are the comeback kings in Serie A, gaining 11 points from a losing position. At home their remarkable results include two stoppage-time goals to draw 2-2 with Milan, trailing twice against Bari before winning 3-2, and a stoppage-time winner against Bologna after conceding the opening goal.

Those results can be read two ways - clearly they have a team spirit that keeps them believing until the end, but also there is a sense that their luck will run out sooner or later. And it is not as if other results support the view that Napoli are a particularly resilient side, as they have won only three out of seven when scoring first. Chievo have a better record in that respect, winning five out of seven when scoring first, and could be hard to overcome if they get in front. Chievo's only defeats on the road have been against top-six teams and overall they have lost just two out of 10 against teams below them in the table.

Tags: Birmingham City, football tips, Genoa football team, James McFadden, Premier League betting, Premier League previews