Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 12 February 2010 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet View Market

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week's selections are made up of one English, one German and one Italian match...

"United, like many Championship clubs, aren’t reliable enough at home to be considered a safe odds-on chance - their home win rate is 47%, falling to 36% against teams outside the bottom six."

Lay Sheffield United at [1.97] v Bristol City

Bristol City's world fell apart in January with a couple of disastrous results against Cardiff, first being knocked out of the FA Cup and then losing 6-0 at home in the league the following week, but those setbacks were out of line with most of their recent form. Since losing 3-2 against Sheffield United in the reverse fixture on November 28, City have lost only three out of 11 (excluding the defeats by Cardiff) and their biggest problem has been a high proportion of draws (six in their recent run and 13 in total). United, like many Championship clubs, aren't reliable enough at home to be considered a safe odds-on chance - their home win rate is 47%, falling to 36% against teams outside the bottom six.

Lay Bayern Munich at [1.43] v Borussia Dortmund

Bayern are often too short and they look particularly so for this clash with the fifth-placed team in the Bundesliga, perhaps because the market is reading too much into their recent run of good results. Bayern are on a run of 11 straight wins in all competitions, but five of their eight Bundesliga wins in that run have been against teams in the bottom seven and last month's 3-2 victory at Werder Bremen stands out as their only first-class result against a team in the upper echelons of the table. Perhaps Bayern have found their true form, but don't dismiss Dortmund, who have lost only two of their 10 away games and just three out of 14 overall since the end of September. Two of those defeats have been in their last two games, but a longer-term view gives them a better chance of taking something than the odds indicate.

Lay Juventus at [1.78] v Genoa

If your inclination is to take on big-name clubs with reputations that aren't backed up by results, Juventus are another must-lay this weekend. Juventus have been in turmoil this season and, having slumped to seventh in the table and been knocked out of the Champions League at the group stage, it was only a matter of time before Ciro Ferrara was replaced as coach. New boss Alberto Zaccheroni has not made a dramatic impact in his first two games - 1-1 draws against bottom-five sides Lazio and Livorno. That leaves them winless in eight in Serie A and vulnerable against Genoa, who are behind them in the table only on goal difference. Genoa's strength is their home record but they arrive in good form, with only three defeats in their last 10 (two against top-three sides Roma and Milan).

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