Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 29 January 2010 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet View Market

Andrew Atherley picks three odds-on shots worth taking on this weekend...

"For a start, five of the last six league encounters between Arsenal and United have produced over 2.5 goals, along with two of the three cup encounters during that period. And there is no compelling evidence that top-of-the-table clashes in the Premier League tend to be low-scoring..."

Lay under 2.5 goals at [1.98] in Arsenal v Manchester United

Big showdowns tend to be seen as likely to produce tight, tense games, but it can be worth considering an alternative view and this match is a case in point. For a start, five of the last six league encounters between Arsenal and United have produced over 2.5 goals, along with two of the three cup encounters during that period. And there is no compelling evidence that top-of-the-table clashes in the Premier League tend to be low-scoring - last season seven of the 12 big-four showdowns had over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in eight of the games, while this season there has been a 50-50 split between under/over 2.5 goals in the six big-four matches so far. Both teams have had a strong trend towards over 2.5 goals this season, with Arsenal having 17 out of 23 (74%) and United 15 out of 23 (65%), and Arsenal have a notable trend against higher-class opposition - nine out of 11 over 2.5 goals against top-half teams (United's rate is 50%). Overall, it is arguable that over 2.5 goals should be narrow favourite in this market and therefore that backing overs is the value bet.

Lay Hamburg at [1.89] v Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg, with good reason, were a lay at home in this column last week, but each match brings a re-evaluation of the form and particularly in relation to the odds, and this week it is Wolfsburg who could upset an odds-on shot. What makes Wolfsburg so vulnerable at home is that their games tend to be open and their inability to keep a clean sheet compromises their capacity to outscore the opposition - last week's 3-2 home defeat by Cologne was a perfect example. Conversely, that openness makes them hard to beat on the road, because they have scored in seven of their nine away games and have taken at least a point in six of those seven scoring games. Hamburg have won only two of the last nine games overall in which they have conceded, which raises doubts about their ability to outscore Wolfsburg.

Lay Hertha Berlin at [1.95] v Bochum

Hertha were another team advised as a lay last week and, having played out a goalless draw against Borussia Monchengladbach (who missed a penalty), they appear just as vulnerable at odds-on this week. Bochum have a slightly better away record than Monchengladbach, with more wins and fewer defeats, and they are unbeaten in four games on the road against teams in the bottom half of the table. In fact, Bochum won at Monchengladbach in their last away game and they are unbeaten in four on the road - a run that started with a good 1-0 win at Hamburg. Hertha still have won only one of their nine home games and scored just seven goals in the process - a low scoring rate that raises doubts about their ability to beat Bochum, who have scored in seven of their 10 away games and in nine of their last 10 games overall.

Tags: Arsenal v Man Utd, Bundesliga matches, Premier League matches, Premiership previews, Wolfsburg