Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 15 January 2010 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet View Market

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week's selections are made up of one English and two Spanish matches...

"Their in-form attack gives Everton a good chance of scoring against City, who have had four clean sheets against teams below Everton but only two (against Birmingham and Stoke) against teams above them. City have scored in 18 of their 20 league games, however, and this looks set up for a more open match than the odds on the over/under 2.5 goals market indicates."

Lay under 2.5 goals at [1.9] in Everton v Manchester City

Defensive frailty has been the undoing of both teams for much of the season and it could resurface here. Everton, uncharacteristically, have kept only three clean sheets this season (last season they ranked fourth with 17) and those shutouts all came against teams below them in the table. Their recent improved form has been all about their attack, which has made up for those defensive deficiencies to secure score draws against Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham. Their in-form attack gives Everton a good chance of scoring against City, who have had four clean sheets against teams below Everton but only two (against Birmingham and Stoke) against teams above them. City have scored in 18 of their 20 league games, however, and this looks set up for a more open match than the odds on the over/under 2.5 goals market indicates.

Lay Atletico Madrid at [1.61] v Sporting Gijon

Atletico, with four wins and a draw from their last six matches, are improving after their dreadful start to the season, but their reputation may have made the odds shorter than they should be for this tricky match. Gijon are two places and four points ahead of Atletico in the table and their form is pretty solid - only three defeats in 12 against teams outside the top five. Atletico, by contrast, have performed poorly against the teams still above them in the table, with just one win in eight. Their recent last-gasp win over ten-man Sevilla stands out as their best result, but otherwise their recent wins have been against bottom-eight teams and they still have something to prove.

Lay Valencia at [1.94] v Villarreal

For years Villarreal have punched above their weight in the Primera Division and against their bigger neighbours, and recent signs indicate that they are capable of causing problems again for Valencia. Following Manuel Pellegrini's departure to Real Madrid, Villarreal took time to adjust under new manager Ernesto Valverde, but they have lost only two of their last 10 and drew 1-1 with Barcelona in their last away game. Valencia have a poor recent record in this fixture, with no win in the last four at home, and their home form is a concern again. They have won only one of six at home to teams in the top 12 and in general have struggled against the higher-quality sides.

Tags: Carlos Tevez, Craig Bellamy, Manchester City preview, Premiership bets