Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 19 February 2010 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet View Market

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets. This week's selections are made up of one English,one German and one French match.

"This match comes down to whether you want to put your money on City’s free-scoring home attack or Liverpool’s recently resilient defence, and there are good reasons for coming down on City’s side."

Lay under 2.5 goals at [1.83] in Manchester City v Liverpool

This match comes down to whether you want to put your money on City's free-scoring home attack or Liverpool's recently resilient defence, and there are good reasons for coming down on City's side. They are on a long, unbroken run of scoring games at Eastlands going back to their 3-0 home defeat by Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup third round on January 3 last year and that gives them a narrow majority of league games with over 2.5 goals during that run. In all games this season when they have scored, City also have a majority with over 2.5 goals. Liverpool have conceded in 15 league games this season, with over 2.5 goals in two-thirds of those, including the 2-2 with City at Anfield in November. With several pointers towards over 2.5 goals being an odds-on chance, unders is worth opposing.

Lay Hamburg at [1.56] v Eintracht Frankfurt

Hamburg started the season in a hurry, winning six and drawing four of their opening games, but then came their first defeat and their confidence seemed to ebb away. Their last 12 games, starting with that initial defeat at home to struggling Borussia Monchengladbach, have yielded just four wins and during that run their home record reads won two, drawn two and lost two. Fourth place in the Bundesliga is based mainly on their opening run and they have not been playing like a top-four side in recent months, which makes them vulnerable at short odds against in-form Frankfurt. The visitors' season is almost a mirror image of Hamburg's, but after a slow start they have lost only one of their last nine games and are up to seventh, just five points behind Hamburg. The gap between these sides is not as big as the odds indicate.

Lay Marseille at [1.53] v Nancy

Marseille are another big-name team that is often overrated and, while they are likely winners and deserve to be odds-on, it is questionable whether they should be so short in the match betting. Marseille have won six of their 10 home games this season, but they have not been dominant over the visitors, scoring nil or one in six out of 10 home games. That makes them look vulnerable against Nancy, who are 12th in the table but rank fifth on away form, with just four defeats in 12 road games. Three of those defeats came in their first four away games and crucially they have scored in 11 out of 12 on the road (the only blank was a goalless draw), which indicates a better chance of taking something here than the odds indicate.

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