Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 07 May 2010 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet View Market

Every week Andrew Atherley will be selecting three odds-on shots worth laying. But there's a catch: he only gets paid by betting.betfair.com if at least two prove to be winning bets......

"There is an increase in the number of goals scored in the closing weeks of the season, but this could be one of the games that goes against the rising trend. Villa’s home games have been notably low-scoring, with just six (33%) over 2.5 goals, and overall only Stoke have had more games under 2.5 goals than Villa’s 23 out of 37."

Lay over 2.5 goals at [1.84] in Aston Villa v Blackburn

There is an increase in the number of goals scored in the closing weeks of the season, but this could be one of the games that goes against the rising trend. Villa's home games have been notably low-scoring, with just six (33%) over 2.5 goals, and overall only Stoke have had more games under 2.5 goals than Villa's 23 out of 37. Blackburn don't appear to have a significant trend in either direction, but one potentially significant factor is that seven of their away games with over 2.5 goals came against teams that rank in the top eight for home goals scored. Against the lower-scoring home teams (Villa rank joint-ninth) Blackburn have had seven out of 10 under 2.5 goals and, if they come here in a competitive frame of mind, that pattern could be repeated.

Lay Nurnberg at [1.57] v FC Koln

Nurnberg need to win to have any chance of staying up, hence their short odds for a match that in normal circumstances they would be a risky bet. They have won only four out of 16 at home (two of those victories were in their opening five home games) and they have been doing their best to seal their own fate, with four straight losses and only four wins in 16 since the mid-season break. Koln are safe and are playing with some freedom, having won three of their last six and avoided defeat in 10 out of 16 since the mid-season break (four of the six losses were against teams in the top six). Koln rank sixth in the Bundesliga on away form and have lost only one of seven on the road against bottom-half teams.

Lay Werder Bremen at [1.64] v Hamburg

Defeat, and possibly even a draw, could see Werder drop out of the Champions League places, but this northern derby also has local pride at stake, so Hamburg should be motivated despite having no league position to play for. The form problem with Werder is that the best side they have beaten at home is 10th-placed Mainz - Werder's home record against top-half opponents is won none, drawn four, lost three. They haven't kept a clean sheet against a top-half visitor, which indicates difficulty against a Hamburg side that has lost only two out of 13 when scoring on the road. The worry with Hamburg is that they lost their last away game 5-1 and could be on a downer after losing to Fulham in the Europa League semi-finals, but this derby should ensure they are competitive.

Tags: Aston Villa team, European football bets, European football odds, Premier League matches, Premiership stats, Richard Dunne