Pay as you lay / Andrew Atherley / 26 December 2009 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet View Market

Andrew Atherley has three lays on a busy day of Premier League action

"The root cause of West Ham’s problems this season is their poor defence – already they have conceded 35 goals, just 10 short of last season’s final total – and consequently most of their games at Upton Park have been high-scoring."

Lay under 2.5 goals at [1.84] in Birmingham v Chelsea
This fixture has a history of low-scoring matches - seven of their 10 meetings in the Premier League have had under 2.5 goals - and Birmingham's strong defence has to be respected, but Chelsea's changing stats indicate that this match could deviate from the norm. Under Carlo Ancelotti, Chelsea lead the Premier League for games with over 2.5 goals, with seven of their nine away games going over that figure. In the whole of last season, Chelsea had only eight away games with over 2.5 goals, so it is clear that the Italian has altered their game plan on the road. Chelsea have scored in every away game under Ancelotti, but just as significantly they have conceded in six out of nine, which makes over 2.5 goals more likely even in a tight-looking match such as this one.

Lay under 2.5 goals at [1.88] in West Ham v Portsmouth
The root cause of West Ham's problems this season is their poor defence -already they have conceded 35 goals, just 10 short of last season's final total - and consequently most of their games at Upton Park have been high-scoring (eight out of nine have had over 2.5 goals). The Hammers are the eighth-highest scorers in the Premier League, which explains why goals can be expected at both ends until Gianfranco Zola can tighten up the defence. Portsmouth have kept just two clean sheets in nine away games, and those were against lower-scoring Hull and Wolves. They have scored in seven of their last eight games, which indicates a good chance of breaching the Hammers' leaky defence and contributing to a high-scoring match.

Lay Arsenal at [1.78] v Aston Villa
Villa were the first Premier League visitors to the Emirates stadium in August 2006 and, in Martin O'Neill's first match in charge, they were on the brink of victory before being pegged back by a late equaliser. That set the tone for their subsequent visits, with another 1-1 draw the following season (again, Arsenal salvaged a point with a late goal) before a 2-0 victory last season, and they have the right type of game and players to cause problems for Arsenal again. Considering Villa had lost eight straight away games against Arsenal prior to O'Neill's appointment, it is clear he has his tactics right for this type of task - a point emphasised by Villa's wins this season at Liverpool and Manchester United. Arsenal have won just five out of 12 at home to top-half teams since the start of last season and are worth taking on.

Tags: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Birmingham, Chelsea, Portsmouth, Premier League, West Ham