Non-league / Gary Boswell / 07 August 2008 /

Maybe the worst thing about summer is that we don't get any offerings from Gary Boswell on non-league football. Today, the lifelong Redditch United fan is pondering the merits of putting his cash down on his own club.

I turned up for work at Betfair Radio on Wednesday to be hit by the news that Oxford's new wonder striker-signing, Jamie Guy, injured himself in the pre-season warm up against Portsmouth and could be out for a month. It's a massive blow for Darren Patterson and the Kassam crew, and the first significant betting factor for the new season. Guy was the universal favourite in the golden boot markets on the back of his exploits at Colchester and the form he'd been showing in pre-season friendlies.

It will also have a massive impact on tonight's Setanta curtain-raiser at Holker Street. I'd been fairly unsure which way to play this one being a fan of the Bluebirds' defensive duo of McNulty and Jones but having no real angle in to how they would cope with the step up in class that Guy was going to present to them. Guy's absence tips the scales back toward the Bluebird's preponderance for clean sheets and the match price of [3.25] starts to look value on the Cumbrians kicking off their return to Premier non-league status in style. With the opening day tendency for 0-0s, you might want to keep the draw on your side and a Lay of Oxford at around [2.3] must be tempting now that Guy is absent.

The weekend throws up several potential Blue Square Premier bankers with Garry Hill's Rushden a solid favourite at [2.25] to take advantage of potential whipping boys Eastbourne Borough. First day punts are always fraught with a touch of the unknown courtesy of the lack of current form but if you saw Borough at all last season you will have to question their ability to make any kind of dent at the higher level given the imbalances of part and full-time football. There has been little change to the line-up at Eastbourne and a sense that the perceived minnow is out to simply enjoy its time in the limelight. There will be disappointment at the mighty fish that is Nene Park - that has won the right to host several games at the 2012 Olympics - if they can't see in the new season with three points.

The other mismatch might come at Stonebridge Road where Ebbsfleet have assembled a serious looking squad to continue their assault on the ultimate prize that is league football. It's a big opening day test on paper as they host relegated Mansfield Town but anyone thinking that Mansfield are the big fish here might have it the wrong way round.

The Stags have undergone immense upheaval both on and off the pitch and new manager Billy McKewen has done well to be fielding a side at all on this opening day. Mansfield may well adjust to their new life in non-league as the new broom approach that has brought stability to York and Exeter in recent seasons does seem to be in place in Nottinghamshire.It's sure to take a while for things to gel on the pitch though and their first taste of non-league is a tricky away game at the curret FA Trophy holders who are showing all the signs of being this season's potential Aldershot. The Fleet have an extremely talented indepth young strikeforce in Luke Moore, John Akinde and Stacy Long to which the interesting Michael Gash has just been added.

They also boast the division's best remaining goalkeeper in Lance Cronin and with John Moules now on the board of directors and the MyFootballClub.com cash still flowing through (so that Daish and Kimble can concentrate solely on the pitch without the over the shoulder distractions that typify non-league football), well, all seems in place to me. Ebbsfleet look an opening day banker of mammoth proportions.

There is a betting maxim that dictates extreme caution when it comes to betting on the side you support. The claim is that emotional involvement in a bet clouds judgement and of course that is a difficult assertion to counter. Balance it, though, with the fact that a team that you are seeing week in week out definitely comes into the category of betting on something you know about and if you are of the ilk to be able to look objectively at the side you support, I do not advise against wagering on them when the time is right.

Perhaps it helps in my case that I can no longer be called a die-hard Redditch fan. I grew up there. It is my home town and on all my travels around the grounds of Great Britain, it is the one to which I most instinctively return. My parents still live in Redditch too so I get to see the Reds regularly and the past two seasons has seen a marked progression in Redditch's form. My spying mission this summer unveiled Owen Story - a striker from Hinckley who has the makings of a new Norman Sylla. Pacy, hungry and instinctive in front of goal. And with talented keeper Danny Lewis having been retained by Gary Whild, a rock solid defensive duo in Exodus Geoghaghon and Liam Daly and midfield maestro Scott Rickards looking fit and firing again, this was the best Reds team I've seen in action since they came up from the Doc Marten's Western.

It's dangerous to start tipping your own team, but the objective current form is also there if you look at the second half of last season results and at a current price of [34.0] in the outrights for the Blue Square North, I think there is at very least a back to lay potential in following Redditch this season. Take a look at their opening day performance against Gateshead and take it from there.

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