Non-league / Gary Boswell / 31 December 2008 /

According to Gary Boswell there comes a point in everybody's life when backing the Us becomes a serious option...

That time looked like it was going to be the auspicious first day of 2009 (The Chinese Year of The Ox) as new manager Chris Wilder gave strong indication that the tide is about to turn at last. The 5-1 mauling of Ebbsfleet on Sunday was impressive stuff and I'm a firm believer of the new broom theory that is often highlighted in statistics as a new manager arrives at a club.

It was Oxford for me to gain revenge on Nick Holmes' Lilywhites who shaded them 2-1 in Wilder's opening game at the Raymond McEnhill Stadium on Boxing Day. I don't like the prices though. Oxford at [1.62] is very short and is obviously influenced by the five goal trounce on Sunday. It does not reflect Oxford's overall form this season and, on top of that, you have to take into account that Salisbury's Boxing Day win was a similar signal of a Lilywhite corner turned after a massive sequence of defeats that saw Nick Holmes' charges drop from title challengers to potential relegation fodder.

The loss of key players in early credit crunch belt-tighteners was the catalyst for Salisbury and Matt Tubbs in particular has taken Holmes a fair while to replace up front. However, the win over Oxford was the first sign to me that recovery was finally underway. In which case, the [7.0] on them to achieve the seasonal double over the Us has to be considered a steal.

New broom theory on the first day of the Chinese Year of the Ox, with a 5-1 current form figure and strong home form this year (7 wins from 12 games) versus tremendous value odds on a definite potential side finally coming out of the doldrums? Superstition versus betting value. Tough call for the start of the New Year!

When in doubt, don't bet.

The Blue Square Premier fixture list has caused a great deal of head scratching with perhaps the draw between Rushden and Stevenage the only bet likely to tempt me. Rushden are a poor and unconvincing lot this season and it's surprising that Garry Hill's head has not yet rolled. They have to be of sufficient mettle to hold an equally poor and unconvincing Stevenage outfit though at home so the [3.65] is a value price I'll take.

I've dropped down the divisions for my home bankers although after Sunday I should seriously be avoiding such practice at this time of year. Backing short pricers singly means no room for error and I like such bets as a multiple so if those nice men at Betfair are offering multiples on the Blue Square Leagues as a New Year treat, consider the three 'certs' which are all repeats of wins by top clubs on Boxing Day.

Tamworth are the best bet at [1.79] to do the double over neighbouring Hinckley. The Lambs have proved a persistent niggle to the outright bet on Southport in this league. They've been at the top throughout and they ain't going away! West Bromwich Albion's Stefan Morrison has been turning out on the Lambs bench over Xmas and Mills is reported to be wanting to sign a permanent agreement in the January window. Further bolster to the argument that Tamworth are the team to watch in Blue Square North.

Rivals Southport are [1.46] to repeat their defeat of neighbouring strugglers - Andy Mutch's Burscough - who are reputed to win only when Redditch players are supporting them! A scurrilous rumour no doubt as Mutch has actually got five wins from 13 since he arrived and that is form designed to avoid relegation. The Sandgrounders will be too strong again though on Thursday.

Final leg of the treble is AFC Wimbledon in the South. They are [1.29] to wallop woeful Fisher again and with Main and Kedwell really starting to click up front for the Wombles, I can't see any other outcome.

The Boz's recommended bets:

1pt multiple back on Tamworth at [1.79], Southport at [1.46] and AFC Wimbledon at [1.29]
0.5pt back on the Rushden-Stevenage Draw at [3.65]

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