Non-league / Gary Boswell / 24 March 2010 / 2

The Boz reckons he knows something that most Blue Square Premier punters don't. Will you follow his advice as he prepares to cash in on this weekend's fixtures?

Every gambler worth his salt will tell you that the time to get your hands in your pockets is when you have evidence and a strong opinion that contradicts the mainstream view. Especially when that mainstream view is also held by those forming the odds.

On that premise, I have hands in both pockets this weekend (I'm even dipping in to that little breached back pocket). There are eight games in Blue Square Premier this weekend where the home win can be strongly fancied and just four of them are priced up at roaring odds on. Interestingly for me, those four are the four where I can make a decent case for the away team nicking something and whilst it will be a bit much to expect all four to fail to win, I did consider the strategic level stakes lay as my recommendation again this weekend as I attempted (marginally unsuccessfully) a few weeks back.

York are [1.5] to beat Tamworth but the Lambs always set up to defend away from home and have achieved seven no score draws already this season and have over 50% record for draw incidence on the road so there has to be doubt about the Minstermen at those odds.

Oxford are [1.4] to beat Gateshead but the Tynesiders are battling well against the drop and with the Us still on a mini-wobble, that's not a good price. Luton have hit a rich vein of form and are in with a shout of the title again but they face a Hayes & Yeading team who have also won three of their last six and have constantly defied expectation in an excellent first season at the new level. Luton can't be trusted at [1.4]. Not by me at any rate.

Finally, Cambridge are [1.44] to beat Grays, who haven't won an away game all season. With Cambridge coming back to form, that also looks a banker but it's not a game I trust again with Grays having a tremendous drawing record despite their almost certain relegation status. There's also the question of Cambridge having nothing to play for now. No chance of promotion or relegation and screaming odds on about such a team never appeals.

You could lay all four and make a decent profit from just two correct or you could take the view of the Non-League Pools Panel that I sit on. We have watched patterns and trends in the Conference Premier for the past 10 years and always noted when the form kicks in as a time to start considering serious match betting. That usually happens mid-season around the end of November/early December and traditionally lasts reliably up to end of January/early February when the end of season fluctuation kicks in.

The weather this year, however, has played havoc with that pattern (you never saw a graph with so many peaks and troughs) and the view of the panel is that with the traditional settled form pattern not having occurred at its usual time this year, a sort of Indian summer is now in operation and teams in form with something still to play for can be trusted to continue their plus scores in what is traditionally a turbulent spell.

And that's where the four better priced home bankers lie. The Boz recommends backing three of them as his play this weekend.

Top of the list are Forest Green, who have hit a purple patch in their bid to avoid relegation with wins away at Kettering and Salisbury this week, following an unlucky last minute defeat at Luton two weeks ago. They are a whopping [2.5] to see off an Altrincham side who have nothing to play for and have no wins in their last seven.

Barrow have got to Wembley for the first time in 20 years and have won four games on the bounce with their alternate league and cup strikeforces (as explained last week). Odds of [2.0] looks a whopping price to continue their current form against an Eastbourne side who have battled hard against the drop all season but are not strong enough.

Third best are Kidderminster on whom you may also get even money [2.0] or just under to beat a Salisbury side who are on a serious downer after failing in their Wembley bid against Barrow last weekend.

The fourth team are Crawley, who are the best price of the lot at a whopping [3.2] - this for a team who have won over 70% of their league home games this season - but have to face Stevenage this weekend. It takes a braver man than me to bet against Graham Westley's squad at the moment although in my prediction capacity I do just marginally call it a Red Devils win.

The Boz's Bets:

Back Forest Green to beat Altrincham at around [2.5]
Back Barrow to beat Eastbourne at around [2.0]
Back Kidderminster to beat Salisbury at around [2.0]

To level stakes and have a half of level stake multiple treble.

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -8.69 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting and has a green position on all teams with a minimum +4.16 in his BSP portfolio.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(2)

1. Daz | 25 March 2010

   Trust me having watched Stevenage on Tuesday night Crawley are a massive price to beat them. They looked very nervy indeed and were very lucky to beat a poor Grays side who to their credit did battle hard and defended well on the whole. Also Crawley were unlucky not to get something out of the reverse fixture a couple of weeks back.
   I also think Mansfield are overpriced against a Kettering side who have been poor at home all season.

2. boz | 26 March 2010

   Nice one Daz. Further reason to give Cambridge a backing miss! I agree on Crawley's price and I'm also looking at backing Oxford and Luton for the title again. Prices suggest it. Westley's lot are notorious for wilting when the pressure is on!
   I saw Barrow Tuesday night. They were on top of their game. They might beat Stevenage at Wembley aswell

:

:

:

?

: