Non-league / Gary Boswell / 29 April 2010 / 1

Gary Boswell looks ahead to the BSP play-offs where Luton head the betting. But should they be such strong favourites, is the question...

I don't feel as strongly about laying Luton in the BSP play-offs as I did about laying them for the league title. After all, the play-offs are just a four team cup competition and over a span of three games, they have just as much chance as Rushden,Oxford and York of prevailing.

Which means of course that the price is everything and in my book, it's [4.0] the field so that Luton's Lay price of [2.68] to win the play-offs outright is very tempting.

By their very nature, all play-offs are staged between teams that are very evenly matched and you couldn't get a situation more so than that which the BSP has thrown up this year. In the twelve league games between the four sides, six have ended as draws and in the six which have thrown up a decisive result, only Oxford v Luton showed a scoreline with more than one goal between the sides. Oxford won that 2-0 at the Kassam.

Indeed, when you look at Luton against the other four, the Hatters registered only one win and that was in the return game against Oxford. They failed to beat either Rushden or York in the four games played against them.

Why then are Luton the favourites to prevail? Two factors for me, both of which have fatal flaws in them. The first is the sheer size of the club and the fan base but really that is a factor that cannot be used in this market where the three opponents have a similar credential. All three are ex-league sides with a strong desire to return to their rightful home and I fail to see why Luton should be considered any greater than the other three. The other factor would be Luton's form on the run-in where they defeated champions Stevenage impressively at Broadhall Way and went on a goalfest against the lesser opposition - scoring 37 in 7 games at one point.

The flaw in using that to propel Luton to favouritism is that when they came up against the sides with decent defence, notably Tamworth and Rushden (and also arguably Stevenage), the goal rout was thwarted and their true status - a status that has seen them fail to become BSP champions despite their miniscule betting price before the season began - has been visible.

Like I say, Luton could win over three cup games but the value undoubtedly lies with the other three in the outright market with outsider of four Rushden's back price of [4.8] particularly catching my eye. It's going to be tight but the Diamonds do have the one outstanding matchwinner of these four teams in Lee Tomlin and that single factor might just be the one that decides it.

Whoever you fancy, you would have to be mad to back Luton at [2.54] in my eyes and The Boz is firmly in the Hatter lay camp once again!

The Boz has closed his satchels on the 09/10 non league season posting his third consecutive year of profit as a Betfair football tipster. This season he posted a P/L figure of +1.25 to recommended stakes on match betting and scored +8-00 in his outright portfolios with the confirmation of STEVENAGE as champions of BSP and the failure of Fleetwood and Hampton & Richmond to land the BSN & BSS respectively.

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1. Ian Lamont | 29 April 2010

   I would have to agree that Rushden's price catches the eye, as they have been quietly consistent and gone about gaining a play-off place without really being noticed. One wonders whether therein lies their weakness. Luton have the toughest draw, against York, who should have done better when well placed to kick on for a title push at the turn of the year, but got bogged down in cup competitions. Any of the four could win this and it should be interesting to watch.

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