Non-league / Gary Boswell / 03 March 2010 / 1

Gary Boswell miscalculated the chances of Barrow last week and is siding with them to beat Cambridge, a side who are in danger of being relegated through no real fault of their own...

I shall reserve comment (and maintain my dignity!) on the expulsion of Chester City during mid season of non-league's premier division. It casts a shadow over proceedings in what has already been a difficult year and should never really have been allowed to happen. Multiple indicators of what was coming and precedent a plenty for excluding them before we began. The FA has a lot to answer for in allowing it to go this far.

The results have been expunged (although Chester officially have up until Friday to appeal) and the messy table reformation and the implications at top and bottom must shape thinking this week.

The major sufferers from the points rejig are Martin Ling's Cambridge United who suddenly find themselves in danger of following Chester out of the league after being shorn of their six points. They were on a big losing run anyway and couldn't stem it Tuesday night although the point at home to Oxford has to be considered a result in the scheme of things.

It will be interesting to see if they can plug the dyke in the next few weeks and the immediate task is a visit to Holker Street to face the Bluebirds of Barrow who have a real chance of emulating their 1990 visit to Wembley after finally knocking York out of the Trophy on Tuesday night.

I've considered betting on the game as Barrow have suddenly hit white hot form (and made a fool out of me in the process!) and their 4-1 win at Ebbsfleet last Saturday will send a few shivers up Cambridge spines. The Bluebirds are [2.3] to win again whilst you can get [2.75] on Cambridge and it is a genuine relegation six pointer now with both teams perched on the edge of the zone.

A Cambridge defeat doesn't bear thinking about for United fans but on what I saw of Barrow against York on Tuesday night, that might well be what's coming. They were without cup tied hat-trick hero Nick Chadwick. New signing Lee 'muscleman' McEvilly was also cup tied but Barrow still shone in front of goal. Last Saturday's shock spanking of the league's top form team has really awoken their confidence and with the Wembley dream now also just a stone's throw away, I expect Holker Street to start a-rocking. It's a notorious ground for atmosphere when the Bluebirds are playing well and I wouldn't want to be Cambridge going there to get three points this weekend. I seriously fear for their future at the moment.

The other relegation team on my radar are Gateshead. Defeat at Tamworth midweek hasn't helped their cause but they are a very in and out team results wise (pretty much like every BSP outfit!) at the moment and recent wins against Altrincham and Barrow have shown that they are not going down without a fight. Most of the Gate's mettle this season has been shown at the International Stadium but they visit Histon on Saturday and are a tempting [4.5] to land an away win.

Scoring goals is not so much a problem for Gateshead since Brian Wake arrived. Daryl Clare is also still pitching in and I think Ian Bogie has instilled the necessary anti-relegation fight into the Gate so that a spirited effort will be assured.

Weighing up Alan Lewer's Histon at the moment is less easy. Plenty of Steve Fallon's classy squad remain and a mid table finish seems fairly secure for the Stutes but just one win in their last six makes them hard to fancy for this. Perhaps the telling stat is seven home draws from fifteen games this season and with that in mind - because I would still rate them player for player a stronger side than Gateshead - I'll play a Lay on Histon at around [2.0] and keep that possible draw with me whilst still fancying the Bogie man's anti relegation stance to be the ultimate difference between the sides.

Two relegation battlers to keep an eye on in the lower leagues are Vauxhall Motors in BSN and Weston-Super-Mare in BSS. Both are punching a bit above their weight at the moment in an attempt to stay afloat. The Mare have secured draws against Basingstoke and Hampton in recent weeks and can be fancied a bit to get something from their six pointer against Maidenhead on Saturday whilst Motors have stunned everyone - following defeats in six pointers against Gainsborough and Harrogate - by beating Northwich and nicking a point at Droylsden. They are a big price to win at Corby on Saturday and rest assured that Carl McAuley's Motors aren't going down without revving a few engines first!

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS:

BACK BARROW to beat CAMBRIDGE at [2.3] or greater
LAY HISTON at around [2.0] against GATESHEAD

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -7.20 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting and has a green position on all teams with a minimum +4.16 in his BSP portfolio.

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1. boz | 06 March 2010

   Rumours abound that Histon will be fielding kids against Gateshead today. Watch those line ups and bet accordingly! To complicate matters, Betfair markets are showing a lot of support for the Stutes.
   I'm a layer whether the kids are playing or not!

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