Non-league Betting: The Oxford wobble is now official

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 11 February 2010 / 2

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A typically non-nonsense tackle from Oxford's Mark Creighton but he's been seriously out of form in recent weeks

"As often happens when attention is focussed on correcting defence, the offence has also stopped firing and two blanks in the last two games at the Kassam coupled with the last minute capitulation at Kenilworth Road on Tuesday night sounds the warning bells."

Gary Boswell tells us why he's revisiting his Blue Square Premier outright position as Oxford continue to struggle. Plus the best of this weekend's individual match betting opportunities from the world of Non-League football.

Before the winter kicked in, I pointed a few folk to the possibility that Oxford's lead in the BSP was far from unassailable. You don't have to have a particularly long memory to know that we have been here before - the year that Dagenham won the Conference. Oxford were down to [1.2] in the betting that year and they've been matched at [1.38] already this year and are currently layable at the still extremely tempting price of [2.42].

Solid defence is a pre-requisite to winning the league and I identified a couple of Oxford Achilles heels in that quarter - most tellingly the fact that heavy pitches were going to expose the lack of pace in the back four. Man mountain Mark Creighton, who was a colossus early season, finds himself on the bench now and Chris Wilder is digging around trying to find someone to plug the leaks. As often happens when attention is focussed on correcting defence, the offence has also stopped firing and two blanks in the last two games at the Kassam coupled with the last minute capitulation at Kenilworth Road on Tuesday night sounds the warning bells.

Oxford are on a wobble.

Both Stevenage and in particular York, who are on a tremendous winning streak, have sounded the clarion call. The scent of blood is in the wind. The Boz re-opened his outrights portfolio satchel which currently has a minimum plus nine point profit on all bar Luton. The Kenilworth Road defeat was one of Oxford's two games in hand on York and it is to the Minstermen that I am now looking to maximise my profit. The fact that Stevenage beat Mansfield and went back top helps the cause in terms of price protection. York can still be backed at [5.8] and I'm taking 2 points at that price. Even if you didn't follow my initial suggestions at the start of the season I suggest you do the same at this stage. If I couple that with a two point lay on Oxford at [2.42] I still have a plus four point buffer on the Us in case I'm wrong. And I wouldn't put anyone (only getting involved in the market at this stage) off a straightforward lay of Oxford at their current odds of [2.42] if you want to keep your options a little more open than the straightforward back of York.

Portfolio betting is where it has always been at for me but there's a chance for some match betting action against Oxford on Saturday too. They are [1.4] to beat Histon and as the stuttering but still potentially classy Stutes are gradually getting over the ructions that saw long term boss Steve Fallon acrimoniously depart, that is a lay price if ever I saw one. Histon had their heads turned by off field shenanigans but a core of the class players that made the play-offs last year remain and their 1-1 draw with York last midweek coupled with a breakthrough return to winning on Tuesday night means things are settling and business returning to normal.

Whilst the BSP portfolio remains exciting and in good shape, the BSN portfolio also got a boost midweek. Only one team backed in that - pre-season Fleetwood at [7.0]. Their main rival Southport got a 4-1 caning off Hinckley on Tuesday and if you're not following that one, take advantage of this Saturday's match bet instead where Fleetwood stand good to beat Gloucester City at [1.3].

The Cod Army are already planning for the future with their new £4 million Highbury refit and the way in which they attracted Anthony Barry into the forward line at the expense of 'big club' Wrexham was indicative of the climate on the North Lancashire coastline. He's already made a big impact on the pitch. We've heard big money plans come a-crashing down before in non-league football of course but this one - rather like the model at Morecambe just up the coastline - has a bit more of a whiff of common sense about it.

One final match bet this weekend. Sat next to my non-league journo comrade Sam Elliot pre-season, I was asked for a backable tip in the Relegation market and off the top of my head, I gave last year's play-off finalists Cambridge United at 40/1. I was looked at as though I had escaped the asylum but then chairman George Rolls was busy doing a lot of boardroom damage and although he's gone now, the legacy has indeed spilled over onto the pitch. Six straight league defeats and a humbling exit from the final chance of silverware in the Trophy midweek. At home to Wimbledon on Saturday and the Wombles are a corking price at [2.4] to win.

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS:

BACK AFC WIMBLEDON to beat CAMBRIDGE at [2.4] or greater
BACK FLEETWOOD to beat GLOUCESTER CITY at [1.3] or greater
LAY OXFORD against HISTON at [1.49] or less

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -4.80 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting having temporarily closed his recommended BSP outrights portfolio satchel with a minimum +9 point profit on all teams. That is now re-opened with a recommended

2pt BACK on YORK to win BSP at [5.8]
&
2pt LAY on OXFORD at [2.42]

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Daz | 11 February 2010

How on earth can you tip a 30/100 chance? That is not a tip thats stating the obvious. By the way Im a Gloucester fan and do agree with you. I actually think we will be in for quite a beating because are defence looks rather suspect and against a quality team like Fleetwood they should be able to expose it. Still at 30/100 its hardly worth having a bet.
Agree about AFC although I do think Oxford will bounce back against a Histon side who are poor away but granted I wouldnt back them at the price. Will be really interesting to see what happens after Tuesday night. I backed York on Sunday at 6s each/way to support my Oxford bet pre-season. York seem to have the knack of picking up those battling 1-0 wins at the moment.
the boz | 18 February 2010

The bets are a strategic attempt to show an overall profit and Fleetwood was a cornerstone banker. It only states the obvious when it wins (which it did) and it reflects my work as a predictor as much as a tipster. Life as a tipster has been mighty hard this year. No excuses. It's a results business. If I don't show a profit at the end of the season, I expect to get fired!!
I thought AFC was a strong tip too and it was a value price but it lost and so was inferior to the pick on Fleetwood. That's my opinion anyway although I take where you are coming from. The weekly battle against the odds is great when it's going well! On to next week!