Non-League Betting: The Fleet are out to destroy Barrow

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 24 February 2010 / 2

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Ebbsfleet will be looking to take no prisoners when they come up against Barrow

"One man does not a whole team make but Ashikodi is undoubtedly an influential player at this level and I do believe that his arrival at Stonebridge Road was a massive fillip for Liam Daish and has resulted in the Fleet pulling away from relegation threat and topping the current form table."

Gary Boswell explains his thinking behind a confident back of Ebbsfleet in the Blue Square Premier this weekend and comes up with another Betfair Multiple.

There's a subtle weather factor in my thinking this week and let's face it, the weather remains the dominant consideration in non-league football betting this season. Getting a game on has become almost as important as trying to work out who will win!

The key postponement is the Barrow v York FA Trophy quarter final which suffered two frozen pitches thanks to Cumbrian snow and is now rescheduled for midweek next Tuesday.

It leaves the Bluebirds dangling on which competition to prioritise. They undoubtedly have one eye on getting to Wembley for the first time since the seventies. There can be no doubt, however, that losing their BSP league place would be a major catastrophe at Holker Street. They have dropped into relegation zone and must start taking remaining league fixtures deadly serious.

Five games in hand of Gateshead (who won midweek) and Eastbourne ought to be a comfort to Dave Bayliss and Darren Sheridan with only a two point gap to close. I'm therefore thinking that the league panic button won't be pressed at Holker Street yet and the weather-delayed game against York will still be uppermost in Bluebird minds.

Whenever Cup considerations have come to the fore this season, Barrow's league form has clearly suffered and they therefore cannot be fancied on Saturday when they must travel to the BSP team of the moment, Ebbsfleet. The odds of [2.1] on Fleet destroying the Bluebirds looks a steal bet to me and I'm prepared to make it nap.

Five wins from the last six games with the only hiccup a disappointing home reverse against Histon and it's that maybe that has decided the oddsmakers to go so long.
For me, however, one of the most significant moments of this BSP season was when Moses Ashikodi jumped ship from cash strapped Kettering and thus ended both their title campaign and any hope they had of defeating Leeds in the FA Cup.

One man does not a whole team make but Ashikodi is undoubtedly an influential player at this level and I do believe that his arrival at Stonebridge Road was a massive fillip for Liam Daish and has resulted in the Fleet pulling away from relegation threat and topping the current form table.

With just one win in their first twenty one games, they were going down but up to 17th now since Ashikodi arrived. As well as scoring himself, the ex-Shrewsbury striker acts as a catalyst for Magno Vieira who also has class at the level but was struggling in isolation. He now has nine goals from the last ten games. Enough said.

Because relegation is by no means a mathematical impossibility for Ebbsfleet still, I expect the juggernaut of wins to continue now until May starting with a possible onslaught here against distracted and personnel-shy Barrow who may well be protecting one or two key players for Tuesday's replay. I'll be doubling my single stake on Ebbsfleet because of the price.

I'm also going multiple again after last week's Trophy multiple was thwarted by weather. I've settled the two remaining tips from last week as singles for my stats and am assured there will be no trouble placing a multiple this week on the BSP league games. I'm adding Altrincham to beat Grays and York to beat Eastbourne to my nap to make a solid treble that should pay around [4.0].

I've been accused of not putting up tips but simply stating the obvious when I've put these kind of short-priced bankers up on site before and I do accept that perception but am also always thinking holistically about making overall profit - both each week and over the season as a whole - and am mainly wanting to avoid tipping losers which has been a tad harder this season than usual. No excuses and I certainly agree that neither Altrincham nor York are worthy of a single bet this weekend at the prices, but I do think both will win against inferior opposition.

If short priced bankers in a multiple is not your cup of tea, my Southern snout has indicated that Dorchester continue in fine fettle in BSS and are a price to beat bedraggled Woking this weekend. I pass that on in the spirit of sharing!

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS:

BACK (2pts) EBBSFLEET to beat BARROW at [2.1] or greater
BACK EBBSFLEET, ALTRINCHAM, YORK to win in a multiple at around [4.0]

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -4.20 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting and has a green position on all teams with a minimum +4.16 in his BSP portfolio.

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Daz | 25 February 2010

If you stick a 30/100 shot in an acca thats fair enough I havnt got a problem with that but in my opinion tipping a team at 30/100 in a single is just the way to the poor house. You say its all about making a profit but you have to back a lot of 30/100 shots to do that and if one gets beat then you lose big. For me backing at 30/100 in a single takes a bigger risk than its worth as anything can happen. With your history in the betting game Im just surprised you thought it was worthwhile putting a tip so shortup as a single.
I agree with you about Altrincham and York and like you say this week not worth backing singally but putting in an acca. I have done a simular thing a few times this season but have had much better luck with my singles.
boz | 06 March 2010

Fair points Daz but ain't it typical that the week you take me to task, both screaming odds on shots go down! And you are right of course, they often do. I don't like putting them up and I don't like backing them but sometimes they are the only ones I think will win. I've been that desperate for a winner sometimes this season I'll be the first to admit. It's been tough.
That Fleetwood tip was also about having so many games postponed due to weather. The Cod Army have bought some covers which are a rare thing in non-league. At least they were getting their games on! There's nowt more frustrating than weeks of postponements as we've suffered this winter. It don't do form study no good either.