Non-League Betting: Side with the sides to whom it matters

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 22 April 2010 /

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Lewis Taylor's AFC Wimbledon have had bad injury problems and looked out-of-sorts

"Top of that expectation list is Ian Bogie’s Gateshead who are a decent price at [2.2] to land their must win home game against an out of sorts AFC Wimbledon. The Wombles have lost at home to Grays and Tamworth on this run-in since their own situation became a fixed mid-table one. They continue to play with reduced line-ups, mainly through injury, and face a Gateshead side who have found their first season at the level tough enough."

It's the final day of the season in non-league football and Gary Boswell is looking to back the teams who really need to win rather than those who are just playing because the fixture list says they must.

Following the flop of last week's Lay multiple where I centred on opposing those teams with perceivably little left to play for, I return this week to the more positive punditry of backing the teams that need to win on final day.

Relegation is the issue in the BSP with the title tied up nicely for Stevenage Borough who landed me my seventh Conference portfolio profit from the last eight seasons. No wonder that it is my preferred way to bet when I was a pre-season layer of Westley's Wonders at [9.4] only to see them stutter early season to be taken back at [12.0] after first four games. Furthermore my actual betting tip for the title - Histon at [34.0] - are one of five teams that could still be relegated on final day! Can't be bad when you are picking up profit for having been proved so wrong!

Problems at the Glassworld - as with much of this season for most clubs - have been of the off pitch and of the fiscal variety and the possibility of the Stutes actually being one of the two relgatees to be confirmed this weekend is very real. They must face a Barrow team that have hit form and are sharpening themselves for the trip to Wembley whilst they themselves haven't won a game in ten. If I was laying this weekend, I might lay Histon at [2.0] and I seriously fear for them if others around them win.

Top of that expectation list is Ian Bogie's Gateshead who are a decent price at [2.2] to land their must win home game against an out of sorts AFC Wimbledon. The Wombles have lost at home to Grays and Tamworth on this run-in since their own situation became a fixed mid-table one. They continue to play with reduced line-ups, mainly through injury, and face a Gateshead side who have found their first season at the level tough enough. Form at the International Stadium has been their saviour and along with warhorse Daryl Clare's 16 goals, a rescue can I think be effected. They played well in their 0-1 defeat against champions Stevenage on Tuesday night and hope must spring eternal. As they sit in the drop zone prior to the game, nothing short of a win will do.

Of the other crucial games in BSP, I fancy Forest Green to see off Grays but the price of [1.7] is prohibitive away from home whilst both Eastbourne and Ebbsfleet might find the win they need beyond them against Oxford and Tamworth respectively. They look the most likely two to get the chop although if Eastbourne can fashion a win, I also fear for Histon.

BSS relegation and play-off situations are in the mix this weekend and I'm intrigued to see Lewes on the verge of the great escape. Their 5-0 win over Dorchester last weekend flagged them up for me but they must play the final crucial game away at Hampton and with only one win on the road all season, I cannot summon the courage to bet!

Sticking instead to the BSN that I know better where pre-season tips Fleetwood were given a mighty chance to still land the title courtesy of Alfreton's midweek 3-1 win at Southport. The Sandgrounders were unbeaten all season at Haig Avenue so it has to be classed as a wobble when a win would have secured them the title. They get a second chance but final game is away at Eastwood which is no gimme and The Cod Army can do a serious smash and grab on the silverware if they beat nothing-to-play-for Stalybridge as expected. Short price to do so but I do not expect slip ups with so much at stake. Fleetwood have cashed in their chips for this title and may be awarded it anyways in the courtroom courtesy of the points expunged challenge but I think all of us would prefer to see them win it on the pitch which could still now happen if Southport don't win at Eastwood.

Final bet is on Dave Pace's Bloods who can secure their play-off place with a routine win over Redditch at the Butchers Arms. Droylsden are a short priced [1.3] to do so and I consider that my banker nap of the weekend and the cornerstone of my final BACK multiple of the 09/10 season.

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS:
BACK GATESHEAD to beat AFC WIMBLEDON at around [2.2]
BACK DROYLSDEN to beat REDDITCH at around [1.3]
BACK FLEETWOOD to beat STALYBRIDGE at around [1.34]

And stake a half point on the Betfair BACK multiple.

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -2-01 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting and scored +10-00 in his BSP portfolio with the confirmation of STEVENAGE as champions.

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