Non-league / Gary Boswell / 31 March 2010 /

Forget chocolate eggs, it's an Easter crackerjack in Blue Square Premier as the title decider takes place at Broadhall Way on Saturday between Graham Westley's Stevenage Borough and Richard Money's mercurial Luton Town. The Boz selects the best bets.

A'STUTE' PUNTERS PLUMP FOR HISTON VALUE

No league in the world has set up a more appetising head to head confrontation as both teams come in on the back of seven game winning runs. In that spell, Stevenage have conceded just one goal whilst Luton have scored 27! Yep, that's 20 seven goals in seven games for the Hatters who have gone onion bag bonkers after the winter respite and must now play football's answer to Ebenezer Scrooge if they are to land the automatic promotion back to the Football League that the Kenilworth Road faithful desperately crave.

There were many - including oddsmakers - who thought that Luton would be doing this sort of thing all season when they were posted as [4.0] pre-season favourites but as non-league aficionados prophesised, there was a learning curve to be gone through first. The Hatters would need to get their heads round how to win non-league football games.

I don't think you can argue against the fact that they've done that now and the 8-0 against Hayes last weekend and the 4-0 against Salisbury midweek were evidence that Stevenage's learning curve in the other direction - how to win football games in the Football League - is about to be tested. Luton suddenly look every bit like a Football League team playing below their station.

It is Stevenage, however, who come into the game with the advantage. A five point lead and a game in hand still makes them [1.5] favourites for the title outright bet and they quite clearly only need to avoid defeat in this game to all but land the prize. As an experienced non-league outfit, they have not had to endure Luton's learning curve and have instead posted the perfect unbeaten at home record that marks out all potential league champions. Can they keep it intact this weekend?

The question mark is there for good reason. Stevenage have got close before but traditionally been denied at the death. Ground grading robbed them when they won the Conference in the days before automatic league status and last year they looked well placed to win the play-offs under Westley only for his stalwart defence to go awol against Cambridge in the semi-final second leg.

Westley made mistakes from the bench that day and has shown other instances of frailty under pressure over the years he has been practising in non-league football. I think it is fair to say that he has been on a long learning curve as a manager but there have been signs this season that lessons have been well learned and there is no doubt that he has his Borough team ready for Saturday's test. They prepared with a similar against Oxford on Tuesday night and won that 1-0 keeping the proverbial clean sheet again.

If they keep a clean sheet on Saturday, they'll have won it fair and square but that's a tall order the form that Luton are in. Kevin Gallen and Tom Craddock will be a proper test of what Borough can expect next season should they go up and both of these quality players have now adapted their game to fit non-league football and are showing that they are too good for it.

Stevenage have Mitchell Cole who comes into that category and a strange offensive set up that largely centres around Yemi Odubade's pace. The acquisition of Tim Sills has changed things for Stevenage up front and Westley has largely been improvising there with varied personnel all season with the root of his success coming much more from the back. That bodes well in The Boz's book. Championships are won by the best defence and I won't be surprised to see Westley playing the counter-attacking game on Saturday - lining up 5-4-1 despite being at home. A come and see if you can score message to Luton. It will be fascinating to see if they can make it work.

Borough are [2.2] to win and [3.4] the draw and I'll take both as my fancy of how it will end despite the fact that the rest of the season becomes fascinating if the other scenario occurs and Luton win 6-0!

Two other bets for Easter weekend. I saw Histon at a soggy Barrow on Monday night and the Stutes were much better than expected with the core of their old Championship-challenging side still intact and firing well. Lanre Oyebanjo,Gareth Gwillam,Nat Knight-Percival and Erin Okay run a tight centre and Adam Tann is a strong new recruit at the back. Goalkeeper David Knight might be suspect and they can't score a goal at the moment for toffee despite Danny Wright being a constant menace on Monday night. Rebuilding time at the Glassworld but ripe for a win I'd say and a big price at [3.2] on Saturday against an AFC Wimbledon side who came similarly unstuck after the winter respite and are in doldrum current form.

Easter banker comes on Good Friday as Justin Edinburgh's rampant Rushden and Diamonds seek to keep their play-off push on track by crushing Crawley at Nene Park. Around [1.57] to oblige.

The Boz's best bets:
Back Rushden & Diamonds to beat Crawley at around [1.57]
Back Histon to beat AFC Wimbledon at around [3.2]
Back Stevenage to beat Luton at around [2.2]
Back Stevenage-Luton draw at around [3.4]

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -7.69 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting and has a green position on all teams with a minimum +4.16 in his BSP portfolio.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: