Non-league / Gary Boswell / 14 April 2010 /

The Boz landed his back Multiple in last week's blog and is switching to a LAY Multiple this weekend as he questions whether the short priced teams will be putting 100% effort in to games they don't need to win.

Now we enter that bizarre period of a football season where a fixture list is littered with games between teams who have varying degrees of desire to even be on the pitch. For some, like Crawley, the season is over. Manager Steve Evans bleated in the press last weekend that he 'resented being made to play three games in a week' masking his general disposition to liking a moan by claiming that, 'it isn't fair to the relegation battle most of our opponents find themselves in'.

It's true enough. The only people who benefit are punters astute enough to focus on those games between sides with all to play for up against infinitely superior teams posted at much shorter odds whose motivation is, at best, questionable.

The system worked a treat for us last weekend as The Boz's tip Eastbourne Borough - a basement club up against a highflyer (York) who had already qualified for the play-offs and thus didn't urgently need any more points - drifted out to [5.0], then proceeded to take a three goal lead within the half hour.

It provided a much needed boost to my tipping coffers after a tough season and I kept my eye on it again on Tuesday night, opposing confirmed fellow play-off teams Oxford and Rushden who failed to beat Cambridge and Mansfield respectively despite being odds on to do so.

It's not a failsafe system because York bounced back from their defeat to beat Barrow 3-0 on Tuesday night despite the fact that Barrow urgently needed the points. Even so, adding in Forest Green - who are battling against the drop and were up against Steve Evans' admitted 'nothing to play fors' - I scored three odds-against bets out of four and that sort of ratio leads to decent profitability.

I'm using it again this weekend with Crawley top of the lay list at [1.8] against Tamworth, who still need points to secure their place in next season's BSP. The Lambs are value to avoid defeat anyway having lost only seven of their 20 games on the road this season, lining up as they do to defend the Alamo.They also come in on the back of halting Luton's goalfest last weekend. The Hatters have scored 32 in their last seven but only got one against Tamworth who hung on for a point that put Stevenage firmly back in charge of the title race.

Evans' Devils might nick a draw but that's all they'll get for me and at odds-on, they are a top-rated Boz banker Lay bet.

You have to look closely again at York as they are [1.36] to beat hapless Grays and with Julian Dicks' Essex boys scoring an inexplicable first win of the season on the road at Wimbledon on Tuesday night, there is a great temptation to play against York again at that price. What on earth came over Grays who are relegated, woeful and just confirmed as losing their ground and likely to be relegated at least two divisions as a result?

The truth, as I see it, is that Grays have not been a particularly bad side all season. I saw them score a 3-3 draw at Barrow when they played some decent football. The troubles have been all of the off pitch variety and there are also some serious question marks about a number of their results this season (as there was also last season). And so I will be leaving alone the temptation to play in the York v Grays fixture.

My other two lays are Oxford at [1.6] at home to Mansfield and Rushden and Diamonds at [2.3] away at Wrexham. The simple fact of the matter is that all the superior and short-priced team has as motivation is the questions of who they meet in the play-off balanced against the need not to risk injuries. Mansfield and Wrexham arguably don't have anything to play for either so that it is hardly a foolproof system as previously highlighted. The simple fact is that the formbook and the playing field has been levelled by the lack of competitive significance in the outcome and thus the odds very much favour the punter. Do you consider [1.6] a good price to back a team that doesn't need to win?

The Boz's Best Bets:
Lay Crawley at around [1.8] against Tamworth
Lay Oxford at around [1.6] against Mansfield
LAY Rushden & Diamonds at around [2.3] against Wrexham

And stake a half point on the Betfair Lay multiple.

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of +1-21 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting and has a green position on all teams with a minimum +4.16 in his BSP portfolio.

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