Non-league / Gary Boswell / 08 April 2010 /

Gary Boswell talks patterns, history and deja-vu ahead of another weekend of Non-League football betting.

Two outstanding statistical incidences affecting teams up here in the wild Northern reaches of English football seem to be recurring again this season.

The first is a Cumbrian stalwart going on a late run to make the BSN play-offs. Barrow did it two years ago and were the mainstay of my making a profit in this column as I wiped out an abysmal December/January losing streak by following the Bluebirds religiously all through the Spring - as far as the play-off final victory at Eton Park that catapulted them to their current BSP status.

Workington are doing the same this year as they capped four consecutive away wins that put them on the cusp of the play-off positions with a stunning home win against League leaders Fleetwood on Easter Monday. Darren Edmundson's Reds are suddenly THE in-form team in the division and can be backed again on Saturday at [1.8] at home to AFC Telford as I seek to wash away the build up of another losing streak - mainly caused by inaccurate match betting in BSP.

The other stat recurring is the uncanny one. 2004/5 saw main Cumbrian club Carlisle United return to the Football League after a one-season dally in the lower regions of English non league after they suffered horrendous flooding at Brunton Park through the winter months (remember the goldfish they found in the Centre Circle that has become the new club mascot?!).

Workington's Borough Park became their temporary home during that period and now the Reds are replicating the feat. It was they who suffered the nightmare floods this year (two of the three main road bridges into Workington remain closed five months on) and now look to end their season in a most unexpected and unpredicted triumph. Loan players from Carlisle - most notably Tom Aldred who is now playing in the Carlisle first team - have helped the Reds' season and they are seriously on fire with strikers Gareth Arnison and the (not) Wright Brothers - Johnny and Anthony - bagging goals for fun. The return of captain Tony Hopper to midfield last weekend further strengthens them and they are The Boz's team to follow from now to season's end.

The other team to back in BSN on Saturday are Alfreton who play host to Northwich Victoria. Expect around [1.6] for that which constitutes my banker of the weekend. I've watched the Vics lose their last two against Workington and Southport and the Vics of early season (the ones who beat Charlton Athletic no less) would have won them both. They held advantage through shows of class but then end of season lethargy and the lack of anything to play for kicked in and they surrendered winning positions. Off field problems continue to dog the Cheshire club for whom their season has long been over. Alfreton by contrast are a play-off player with rock solid home form and should win.

I was tempted to give the BSP a total swerve after a poor run and a tough season overall but despite the difficulties, the division remains intriguing and a true challenge as promotion and relegation issues remain white hot. Luton's win at Broadhall Way sets up the championship race nicely and I have looked at a small investment on the Hatters now in the outrights at [5.0] just to level off BSP portfolio profits either way.

Borough do still hold a big advantage however and showed serious mental mettle with the 3-0 bounce win at Kingsmeadow on Easter Monday. That was champions form and Luton may just have left their title run a shade late. I don't see Westley's wonders wobbling against Forest Green on Saturday. Rovers' defence was woeful against Tamworth and if they do that against Stevenage, it will be a cricket score. The price of [1.3] on Stevenage is a match betting turn-off but I do think Borough will win.

Value comes in the games for play-off wobblers Oxford and back-to-form York and it was a toss up for me which one to oppose as they travel to Altrincham and Eastbourne respectively. The Minstermen were imperious midweek but may suffer the fatigue factor on Saturday.

Garry Wilson's Sports have the most to play for and with Ebbsfleet and Forest Green back in the drop zone and with tough away games on Saturday, Eastbourne get a real chance to cement their survival if they can see off the Minstermen. [4.0] is a cracking home price for a basement side who have only lost seven of their twenty home games this season and have chalked up wins there against Wimbledon and Wrexham. It's a value bet to try and make a dent in those season match bet losses!

THE BOZ'S BEST BETS:

BACK WORKINGTON to beat AFC TELFORD at around [1.8]
BACK ALFRETON to beat NORTHWICH at around [1.6]
BACK EASTBOURNE to beat YORK at around [4.0]

And stake a half point on the Betfair multiple.

The Boz is currently running at a P/L figure of -11.69 to recommended stakes for the 09/10 season on match betting and has a green position on all teams with a minimum +4.16 in his BSP portfolio.

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