Non-league / Gary Boswell / 13 August 2007 /

Stafford Rangers are a big lay at home to Kidderminster at the price on offer

Boswell's Betfair Blog - a bi-weekly round up of the best plays in the world of non-league football (Gary Boswell has been a non-league football betting specialist since 1999 and was the betting correspondent for the Non-League paper-2001-2006. He was a close season transfer coup for the new international publication NonLeague Today and also signed to write for Betfair at the end of the 06/07 season.He scored 100% success rate with his tips for Betfair in last season's Conference South and also correctly identified all three Conference play-off winners - Salisbury,Farsley Celtic & Morecambe).

The football bet I treasure most is the LAY on the home team as you are almost always laying at shorter than true odds even when the home team are clearly inferior.

There are those I know who consider the draw the spoiler of football prediction and to some extent I go along with that especially in a league as tightly contested as the current Conference. How many match bets have you had ruined by the late equaliser as the outplayed throw the kitchen sink into one last do or die attack?

I like laying a team simply because it brings the draw into your win ratio and when the odds are not too risky, it's always my preferred option in football match betting.

I therefore look predominantly for vulnerable home teams and there's a pearler in Tuesday night's Blue Square Premier fixture list.

Stafford Rangers were borderline Conference standard last season with Guy Madjo leading the line. With the talented topscorer, they notched just seven wins at Marston Road. Without him, scoring this season will be even tougher. Replacement David McNiven is well past his sell by date and the other key goal getter is Neil Grayson who hits 43 this year! Good as he has been, Father Time has definitely caught him up. Old Mister Grace comes cruelly to mind!

Stafford had a chance to get off to a start on Saturday paired against nervous new boys Farsley Celtic but despite a host of chances, failed to hit the onion bag and look sure to uphold their position as favourites for the drop in a long hard season ahead.

Visitors Kidderminster have forgotten how to win at the Aggborough and were the shock result on Saturday as their clearly superior line up continued last season's home jinx by failing to beat ordinary Aldershot. Away form is a different kettle of fish and the ten they won on the road last season would have had them in the play-offs if they could have replicated it at home.

The signing of Peterborough's Justin Richards can be considered a close season coup for the Harriers and alongside Christie, Blackwood and Constable, they boast the most formidable forward line in this season's Conference. Worrying then that they had to rely on rock solid centre-half Mark Creighton to score on Saturday but I don't expect Mark Yates to tolerate that result and he will know that this is a must three points if the Worcestershire outfit are going to attempt regaining their league status this term.

Expect a stern Midland Derby that Rangers will do well to get a point from so that a Lay at anything shorter than 2.8 is a real steal.

My second Premier play on Tuesday night is in the Salisbury-Ebbsfleet fixture. City earned the title Stonewall Salisbury last season courtesy of conceding just 37 and already have one clean sheet on board at the new level. Nick Holmes' side play some of the most defensive football I've ever seen (remember Arsenal with Tony Adams at his prime?) and don't currently have a striker to make any kind of impression at Premier level. They may well be whipping boys this season but they might also prove mighty difficult to get past with Cook and Bond looking particularly robust in central defence. Ebbsfleet are already without last season's star striker Charlie MacDonald and suffered a superMac double whammy in a bruising game against Northwich on Saturday when new signing Gary MacDonald was felled in a sickener and looks out for the season.

On paper, Ebbsfleet would be the superior outfit but I fancy the Whites to hold firm and the draw looks a value bet to small stakes.

Another home Lay opportunity in the Blue Square North where Redditch United are showing signs of repeating last season's struggle and face a Tamworth team with Adie Smith and Des Lyttle in defence. Redditch are one of my outsiders for the season whilst Tamworth are a layable favourite for the title but first game suggested I might have got that wrong as the Lambs blitzed Burscough. They might get more of a fight from the Reds but Gary Whild's squad are still depleted and will do well to get a point on strength of Saturday's form.

Wednesday night is Newport County's first chance to lay down their credentials for Blue Square South and I expect Beadle's boys to have a laugh at the expense of Maidenhead. The newly promoteds show solid attacking flair but are very vulnerable at the back and should struggle to contain a feisty County side.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

3pt LAY on Stafford Rangers at 2.8 or shorter versus Kidderminster

1pt BACK the Salisbury-Ebbsfleet draw

1pt LAY on Redditch United versus Tamworth

1pt BACK on Newport County versus Maidenhead

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