Blue Square Premier Betting: Time to switch allegiances

Non-league / Gary Boswell / 03 August 2011 / 3

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Gary Brabin knows this league well and has the tools at his disposal to finish top of the pile

"Luton only missed promotion by virtue of the shoot out and although underperforming the bookmakers’ odds prediction for two years, they have in my mind done fine over that period. Learnt what it takes and now look ready. From their first six games I would expect 12 to 14 points minimum and they could easily take an early table lead, so that the price will quickly disappear."

Firmly in the lay-Luton camp over the past few years, Gary Boswell has decided this is the season where they will prove the odds-compilers right and the time for us punters to jump ship.

Rather like successful comedy, continued long term profit from betting relies heavily on accurate timing. Spotting exactly the right moment to move in to maximise but also that subtler trait of knowing exactly when to switch sides on a bet - from back to lay and vice versa.

I've made my money the past two years by laying Luton in the Conference Premier - largely because their advertised price was consistently below their perceived chance in my estimation. I've flagged it consistently in this column (and made a few enemies along the way!) and had four pick ups out of four, as they were underpriced pre-season favourite for the past two league winner markets, as well as both play-offs.

And there they are again at around [4.0] for the 2011/12 season - the longest pre-season price since they came down from the Football League. This year though, I switch sides. This year I back - preferably at some of the [4.5] that has been around the past two weeks - but also at [4.0] if I have to.

This year I think Luton are ready to return. Manager Gary Brabin gets a full season at the helm and he has the environmental credential - much more so than Richard Money had. Brabin knows this league. He's lost Claud Gnakpa and a few others back to the Football League but he's gained Robbie Willmott, Curtis Osano and Aaron O'Connor and that says to me: fewer 5-0 drubbings of the minnows, more consistent performances against Conference peers.

I've watched O'Connor for four years now since his time in the Northern Premier and he is in the DJ Campbell mould of pocket dynamo who has an uncanny knack of being exactly where you want him to be as goal threat emerges. Like Campbell, he misses as many as he scores but his stats are high overall and he's a constant improver. Excellent and cheap get for Brabin from the ruins of Rushden and Diamonds. Whilst others splash the cash (and there really has been phenomenal transfer movement in the lead up this season), Brabin quietly weeds and acquires to add squad consistency to what is undisputedly the strongest outfit left from last year's league campaign.

Luton only missed promotion by virtue of the shoot out and although underperforming the bookmakers' odds prediction for two years, they have in my mind done fine over that period. Learnt what it takes and now look ready. From their first six games I would expect 12 to 14 points minimum and they could easily take an early table lead, so that the price will quickly disappear. Take it and hang on to it season long.

York and Fleetwood are many pundits' idea of the main contenders. Both have spent serious money this summer but the latter are my idea of a pre-season lay if you can get around [6.0] matched. Main additions to their squad are Andy Mangan and Richard Brodie who both have playing pedigree at the level but reliability question marks in my book. My preference as an outsider is Paul Cox's Mansfield at [13.5]. The Stags have also spent liberally and will need to gel the squad but the acquisition that I really like for them is Eastwood's Lee Stevenson. There is a midfielder who will rise through the ranks and I predict a return to sunshine this season at Field Mill.

The two sides who can arguably top Luton on current form figures are the descending two - Stockport [15.0] and Lincoln [17.0] and the former's appointment of Dietmar Hamman as manager has caught many a tabloid eye. Background finance here is as mysterious as Crawley's was last season and perhaps a tab must be kept on the other Hatters. Not for more than a decade has a descending side won the Conference Premier but Stockport are an interesting price in the promotion market. I've seen some [8.0] around as trading hots up although they are as low as [5.0] as I write. The former price is worth a punt I think.

THE BOZ's PRE-SEASON CONFERENCE PREMIER RECOMMENDATIONS:

2pts BACK on LUTON TOWN at [4.0] or better in the winner market.
0.5pts BACK on MANSFIELD at [13.5] in the winner market.
1pt LAY on FLEETWOOD TOWN at around [6.0] in the winner market
1pt BACK on STOCKPORT COUNTY at around [8.0] in the promotion market.

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Daz | 04 August 2011

Im shocked you want to back a Luton side who look weaker than last season and again look terrible value to win the League. Also surprised you want to back Stockport who have yet to sort their squad out and have a manager who doesnt know this level of football at all. It wouldnt surprise me if he wasnt even manager come the end of the season. Mansfield said they would splash the cash and all theyve done is get a load of Eastwood players.
Im firmly with Newport who are overpriced and would have been in the play-offs last year but for Holdsworth going and York are the savers.
garyboswell | 07 August 2011

Reading round the pundits Daz I realise that I'm going against the flow with Luton and Stockport. Kind of what I did when I opposed Luton aswell!!
I stand or fall by my record and you can rest assured I do not make such statements lightly. I've seen Stockport a lot over the summer and they are a new team gelling fast. They might suffer the manager not knowing the league but in this instance, I predict not. As for Luton being weaker. Player by player wise maybe. Gnapka and Kroca were symptomatic of the problem Luton had last two years of wrong sort of players for the league. It's won, as all football leagues are, by gelled team units. Brabin is trusting that last season's nucleus of close shave
team guys will assert this year with the two main protagonists gone. I watched them against QPR and compare that with what the so called 'stronger squad' did v Alfreton pre-season last year. Not rocket science of course and much could go wrong. I agree to some extent that they are short again pricewise. Just that this year, I fancy them to win! Quite surprised that shocks you. I often wonder from your comments whether we watch the same league!
Daz | 11 August 2011

I have seen no friendlies as I cant stand watching them and think that they can be overplayed a fair bit, for example I thought you were way over the top in your reading of the Alfreton game last pre-season. Im not saying Luton cant win the league but I think they are a poor price to do so. I do agree that they have a very nice set of fixtures to start with and perhaps they wont get caught.
To be honest I often wonder if you watch the same league as me given you backed Barrow and Tamworth for the League last season and also decided to lay Crawley because you predicted a blip in form that never came. Still betting is all about views and we shall see who is right come April.