Football Food For Thought / Gary Boswell / 07 December 2008 /

Betting.betfair.com non-league tipster Gary Boswell has been around long enough to know that there are golden rules to betting that must be obeyed. In the first of a three-part guide, the Boz recalls an uncharacteristically energetic Jan Molby winnning him a lot of money and talks about swerving footballs.

The Boz's basic guide to a better betting experience

(based on the assumption that the aim of the exercise is to make some profit. If the aim of the exercise is to experience the thrill of the punt with the understanding that long term losses are the cost of that thrill, no need to read on!)

Tip number One: Use your eyes - back what you see

In the pre-Betfair days, to make a long term profit from betting, you had to be one step ahead of the bookmaker's odds compilers. You had to be able to gain an edge. Something you knew that they didn't. It applies just as much in the modern world except that now you are playing not only against bookmaker's odds compilers but Uncle Tom Cobbley and all! Never was it more necessary to get something on your side that you know and others don't.

Your eyes are your best friend. Observe everything you can. At a football match, don't just follow the ball, watch the dugout, keep an eye on the crowd behaviour, see what the goalkeepers are doing when the play is up the other end. All these factors have a bearing on long term outcomes and tend to be the aspects traditional odds makers don't factor in.

In season 1999/2000, I was a regular at Christie Park to watch Jim Harvey's Morecambe. My nearest club. My newly adopted team. In October 1999, Kidderminster Harriers were the visitors and during the game I witnessed the Kidderminster Harriers manager - a certain Jan Molby - have an extraordinary touchline influence on the game.

Kiddy were languishing in the nether regions prior to the game and Morecambe were widely forecast to win. For 80 minutes, The Harriers played a stout defensive formation with Molby on his feet bellowing instructions and encouragement throughout. In the last ten minutes, with the game seemingly drifting towards a 0-0 draw, Molby became frantic in urging winger Thomas Skovbjerg to go on an attacking run.

The rest of the Kidderminster side left their own half for pretty much the first time in the game and supported Skovbjerg's run. Morecambe were caught cold. The first bit of defending they'd been called to do all game and they duly conceded a Dean Bennett belter and Kidderminster took all three points back to Worcestershire.

They had been bottom of the table when Molby turned up six games in to the season. In May, they were crowned champions and became the first side from Worcestershire ever to enter the Football League. Brian Talbot's Rushden and Diamonds had been screaming odds on bookmaker's favourites for the title all season.

I considered what I'd seen Molby do - single-handedly engineer an unlikely 1-0 win from the touchline - to be exceptional and I thought if he could keep doing that and with the confidence that winning was going to bring to his squad, he might win the league. I backed them at 50-1 after that game and again at 16-1 at Xmas and 5-1 in February by which time they had made it into the top six. I also backed them every game in that period whilst odds compilers, oblivious to what I'd seen on that day, continued to over price them based on their current league position.

Tip number Two: Keep your information to yourself

In March 2000, I started on my career as a football tipster and in my first columns for the now defunct Football Gazette gave Kidderminster as a strong advice to win the league ahead of the still screaming odds on Rushden & Diamonds. The price on Kiddy was still 5/1 at that point but after three more weeks and three more wins for the Worcestershire outfit, they were down to 6/4 joint favourites.

I was already on of course so didn't seriously suffer from releasing the information. I was being paid for it too so had no qualms. In general though, if you see something that you can turn to your betting advantage, you release details of it at your peril! The way word gets round the internet these days, you are best advised keeping it to yourself. If you must tell, tell only those you trust not to blab it widely or, like me, find someone who is willing to pay you for the info!

The Boz doesn't bet in the Premier League as a rule but as a fan, I watch it and have observed something this season which strikes me as one of those observations on which betting money can be made. It's not as blatant as the Molby story related above but might have similar potential.

A goalkeeper alerted me to the lightness of the ball in the Premier League this season. He bemoaned the erosion of traditional goalkeeping skills stating that the lightness forced keepers to come and punch rather than catch and made saves of long distance shots - prone to greater movement in the air - far more difficult. He claimed that the lighter ball had been introduced to pander to the general perception that football is more entertaining the more goals that go in.

I heard that information in August and have been watching ever since. The official rules state that the ball must weigh between 14-16 ounces which is where the discretion for a lighter ball comes in and that circumference must be between 25-27cms. Other than that, there is no evidence that a lighter ball is being used. The goalkeeper might have been paranoid or trying to explain away the glut of errors that we've been seeing in top flight football of late.

But then there is Ronaldo's bend which few keepers seem able to read. And there is Gomez and Robinson's seeming failure to keep hold of a ball they were expecting to catch easily (is this an illusion?).

Up until a few weeks ago, when all the top three drew 0-0, there had been noticeably more goals per game in premiership matches this season. Maybe the edge that gave has now gone for betting purposes or maybe not. I pass it on for your perusal as an observation that may or may not have the same sort of legs that Jan Molby had for me!

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