Football Food For Thought / The Betfair Contrarian / 20 October 2010 /

The footballing world is adamant Wayne Rooney is off and the Betfair market agrees, making him odds-on to leave in Januray. But the Betfair Contrarian is having none of it...

Sir Alex Ferguson's revelation that Wayne Rooney wishes to leave Manchester United and has shown no interest in extending a contract that expires in the summer of 2012 caused the odds on the England striker leaving Old Trafford in the winter transfer window to crash to [1.48]. The Contrarian expects him to stay at least until the end of the season though, and is adamant that there's money to be made betting on that possibility at [2.24]. Here's why...

Manchester United don't sell in the winter

Over the last five seasons, Manchester United have only sold four players in January: David Jones, Phil Bardsley, Ryan Shawcross and Danny Simpson. That quartet made a combined four league starts in their Red Devils' careers, and no league appearances whatsoever in the campaign that they were sold in. The precedent therefore is clear - while Sir Alex Ferguson doesn't mind occasionally bringing in players midway through the season, he has no interest in letting members of the first-team squad leave, given the lack of time to find a suitable replacement and bed them in.

High-profile transfers are saved for summer

It's very rare for hugely expensive transfers - of which Rooney's would surely be one, considering he was already worth £25.65 million in 2004 as an 18-year-old - to take place in the winter window. Each of the 13 dearest moves in world football history were completed between seasons, with the most obvious reason being that clubs set budgets in the summer, and spend the bulk of money available to them then, when the market is more active. Even the richest side around right now, Manchester City, are yet to pay over £16 million for a player in January.

Real Madrid are happy with their squad...

David Beckham and Ruud van Nistelrooy both went to Real Madrid after falling out of favour at Manchester United, while Cristiano Ronaldo made the same switch two years ago. So given their reputation as big spenders and manager Jose Mourinho's friendship with Ferguson, it's no surprise that the Spanish capital is viewed as Rooney's most likely destination. The Special One has twice ruled out bidding before the summer, however. Firstly, he stated: "This is the squad until the end of the season. We have an excellent squad with players who give me a lot of confidence and I don't want any players in the winter market," and he has since added when asked about Rooney "He will stay at Old Trafford for sure."

..and they won't sell to Manchester City

Real Madrid aside, Manchester City are the only team that stand out as having both the funds and the overriding need (that need being to prove that they are no longer second fiddle in Manchester) to make a move in January. But Manchester United won't allow it to happen, just as they prevented Gabriel Heinze from signing for Liverpool in 2007 and instead held out for an offer from Real Madrid. The only way he will end up at Eastlands is if he runs down his contract or joins another side in between - letting him depart for their neighbours halfway through a campaign in which both are competing for the title is unthinkable.

The press could help change Rooney's mind

Ferguson claimed to have first learned of Rooney's intention to exit in mid-August but it's only this week that the press have caught wind of it - and while they haven't done Rooney any favours recently, they may do here. The former Everton forward won't be able to escape the inevitable media comments of how leaving Manchester United can be career suicide, that he owes the club and his boss has always looked after him. Expect assorted ex-players to have their say, and it's plausible that it will all have an impact. Ferguson undoubtedly hasn't conceded defeat yet, making it clear that a lucrative new contract remains on the table.

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