Football Food For Thought / The Betfair Contrarian / 30 November 2007 /

The Betfair Contrarian is back up to his old tricks

The Premier League season is only 14 games old, and already there's been a bumper crop of Premier League managerial departures. Jose Mourinho, Sammy Lee, Martin Jol, Chris Hutchings and Billy Davies have all been asked to leave, while Steve Bruce has left a seat to fill. The necks of Gareth Southgate, Sam Allardyce and Rafa Benitez are also twitching nervously beneath the blade of the merciless managerial axe.

So why are the top-flight's chairmen so bloodthirsty this year? Common consensus dictates that managers need time to settle in at a club and that knee-jerk sackings are not the solution, but perhaps the owners have all been reading the secret football text that claims otherwise...

1. New managers have performed miracles in each of the last three seasons

* Teams looking dead certs for the drop in recent seasons have been rejuvenated by the arrival of new managers at this time of year. In December last year Alan Curbishley took over at West Ham when they were languishing in the bottom three, and managed to keep them in the Premier League thanks to seven wins in their last nine matches. Harry Redknapp rescued Portsmouth from relegation after returning there in December 2005 and Bryan Robson achieved a similar feat after taking over at West Brom in November 2004.

2. It didn't do Manchester United any harm

* November 1986. Ron Atkinson's Manchester United are 19th in Division One after a dismal start to the season. In comes a young Scot called Alex Ferguson, and 1174 games (and counting) later he can proudly reflect on the biggest trophy haul in English football history.

3. This season's most trigger-happy Premier League clubs are already reaping the rewards

* The three clubs who had sacked their managers and appointed permanent replacements before last weekend's Premier League matches have all experienced an upturn in fortunes. Chelsea averaged 1.83 points per game under Jose Mourinho this season, but since Avram Grant's arrival that figure has increased to 2.12. Gary Megson's points-per-game average at Bolton (1.2) is markedly better than that of his predecessor Sammy Lee (0.56), and Juande Ramos has averaged 1.25 points per game in his first four games in charge, compared to the 0.7 achieved by Martin Jol.

4. History has been very kind to managers arriving in the autumn

* Some of English football's most successful managers ever - including Sir Matt Busby (October 1946), Bill Shankly (December 1959), Sir Alex Ferguson (November 1986) and Arsene Wenger (October 1996) - took charge of their respective clubs after only a few games of the season.

5. Terrible managers and early-season sackings make a happy couple

* Some of the world's least successful managers ever have been sacked at this stage of the season, thereby sparing the clubs they worked for further embarrassment. Dumbarton boss Jim Fallon was shown the door in November 1996 after leading his team to two wins in 46 league matches. Former Barcelona great Hristo Stoichkov arrived at Celta Vigo after a disastrous spell as coach of his native Bulgarian national team and was sacked in October this year after complaining that he was struggling to adapt to life without his parents. And David Platt was sacked a few games into his stint as Sampdoria coach in 1998, having taken the Blucerchiati from 13th to second-bottom in only six games.

6. Early-season appointments last

Of the 25 longest-serving managers currently working in England, no less than 15 were originally appointed between September and the end of December.

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