Football Food For Thought / Matthew Walton / 18 February 2008 /

"Magical" Matthew Walton tells us why analysis of recent form does little more than scratch the surface when it comes to researching a football bet

For a sport which attracts so much betting activity (second only to horseracing) it seems strange that the study of football form has always been carried out in a most superficial way.

Even when selecting a bet in such lowly surroundings as the 3.10 at Folkestone on a cold, wet Tuesday afternoon in January, punters will assess the going, weight, trip, distance, jockey booking, trainer form, calibre of opposition, grade of race and any number of other factors. And what's more, this isn't even classed as being overly fussy or meticulous, it's just the way it always has been - and will be - when it comes to racing form. It's taken seriously.

However, with football the prevailing practice when it comes to betting seems to be wholey inadequate by comparison.

Take the upcoming Carling Cup Final. With this game you'll find some punters will bet for sentimental reasons (hardly a blueprint for long-term success), others will go off the most basic of instincts (Chelsea are simply the better team ... aren't they?) but only a few will consider what we might term 'form' issues - namely recent meetings and results, home/away bias, team line-ups, odds available and so on.

Why is it so much money is being wagered on the basis of so little information?

The purpose of this column, and subsequent articles, is to show that all our football betting can be enhanced (i.e. made more profitable) by a rudimentary understanding and use of form and statistical analysis.

But, please understand, the aim isn't to over-complicate the simple. Rather to give the subject the level of attention it deserves.

To start our discussions about 'football form' let us consider probably the most important, but most ignored, subject - namely the line-up of a team.

How many times have we watched a match and seen one player make all the difference to the way a side plays? Likewise, when you support your favourite team. You know that without Player X or Player Y you're going to struggle. We all recognise this fact.

Take Liverpool without Steven Gerrard, Chelsea lacking Terry, Lampard or Drogba and Manchester United shorn of Wayne Rooney's services (and this statistic was clearly demonstrated after the recent Manchester derby - Rooney has missed all four of United's league defeats this season).

However, when we come to place our bets on football we take the result of a match as being the one relevant piece of information that it produces. Not so. Putting it bluntly, every time Arsenal play it is a different team we are being asked to study. A totally different piece of form to assess. More often than not, the starting XI will be changed from game to game, substitutions will be for different players, by different players, at different times of the match.

Constantly changing criteria which we still lump together one umbrella term of 'Arsenal form' when we should put each result into the context of who played.

Ask yourself this question, would you use the Arsenal side that played Manchester United in the FA Cup as a yardstick for Arsenal's chances in general? Without the likes of Adebayor, van Persie, Sagna, Clichy and Flamini starting the game. Of course not, but many do.

The table below is an illustration of this point. It charts the performance of Everton this season with and without certain players. As you'll see, when betting perhaps you should pay a little more attention to a team's line-up than you currently do :-

Players like Joleon Lescott, Tim Howard and Phil Neville have been virtually ever-present so their stats are ignored but the findings for Mikel Arteta, for example, show that with him in the side Everton's general win ratio increases by 5% but without him it drops by a huge 29%. And, bizarrely, the team do better without Yakubu and Andy Johnson!

For sure, such figures can be used to prove anything you wish - but the purpose here is just to show that there's much more to 'Everton form' than meets the eye.

As we said at the start of this article, the aim isn't to confuse the issue of football betting. For many it is a simple and profitable exercise. We're not looking to confuse it just for the sake of it.

The point is that so many punters bet so much, and lose, when they could be much more successful if they simply looked a little further than the name on the coupon.

When we see Kauto Star on a racecard we then look to the weights, the trip, the going, the jockey and so the list continues. Why is it with Liverpool or Manchester United or Arsenal our investigations go little further than their last match or league position?

Line-ups are the most vital piece of information we have as football backers. After all, these are the players who will determine the result so give them the credit they deserve when you're having a bet on this weekend's league fixtures or the Carling Cup Final.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: