Football Food For Thought / Paul Moon / 12 August 2008 / 5

Pablo Luna - Moonlighting for Betfair. Pablo looks at the Premiership managers who face the sack and those who are on the verge of walking out even before a Premiership ball has been kicked in anger.

Betfair's Managerial Change market reflects the pressure on managers to keep their Premiership jobs. Latest odds include Mark Hughes at [5.4] Alan Curbishley at [5.8], Paul Ince priced up at [7.0], Kevin Keegan ([7.8]) Gary Megson ([8.0]) David Moyes ([11.5]) and Roy Hodgson [15.0]. Most are priced with the sack hovering over their heads but one or two may move on their own accord if they do not get the backing that was promised (such as Hughes and Moyes).

Mark Hughes has been extremely irritated at his own lack of control in the transfer market. He also admitted it is taking him time to get used to the structure of his new employers Manchester City but allegedly remains enthusiastic. That may or may not be true but a toxic cloud shrouds the City of Manchester Stadium. Fit and proper borrower Thaksin Shinawatra's commitment seems to be in question I believe that he will shortly sell and leave the club in utter chaos.

After just failing to land the Chelsea job, Hughes realises that he is hot property and any promises that are not kept will see him quit! I believe that his decision to coach Manchester City was not a step forward but a gigantic mistake, he should leave today!

Alan Curbishley of West Ham has weakly vowed to prove the bookies wrong after being made the favourite to become the first Premier League managerial casualty of the season. The Upton Park supporters are growing increasingly frustrated by his continual moaning about injuries and a perceived lack of attacking zest. To make matters worse I sense the board wants an excuse to sack him and even he realises that he is on borrowed time.

He may only have eight games to save himself. Curbishley's methods were openly criticised by the board. He was seriously undermined when the club ordered a thorough review of his training and fitness regime by Roehampton University. Whilst accepting that Curbishley is not top class, I thought that finishing 10th last year was just about as good as it gets for a club with their structure and wage bill. He looks a worthy favourite and ready for the chop.

Paul Ince has never been considered intelligent and muttering about institutional racism in the boardroom will hardly endear him to those who entrust their millions. I would not employ this lazy fake. He will take Blackburn backwards and doubt if he will get a second season.

The FA, the Premier League and the League Manager's Association (LMA) would prefer a UEFA Pro Licence to manage in the Premier League. Ince shows absolutely no interest in obtaining them. He started the B licence course, the lowest rung for former professional players, but did not finish it. He also started the LMA's Certificate of Applied Management for Football, but left Warwick Business School for a golf course in Portugal. He was expected to observe a course in Wales recently, but was not seen there, either.

Newcastle United boss Kevin Keegan, another intellectually challenged, has insisted that he still has it in him to bring out the best in his players - I disagree. When you look beyond his childlike energy there is no real substance. I cannot comprehend why billionaire Mike Ashley was suckered by his appointment.

Since then he has openly admitted there is no chance of success - so why is he there? Will a supporter explain it to me? Mike Ashley has since warned Keegan about his views and insisted on European football this year, demanding a return on his £250m investment.

Newcastle, a great club possessing great supporters, is one team that has the potential and gravitas to smash its way into the top four in the Premiership. Latest Betfair prices for clubs other than the Big Four to finish in the Top Four include Tottenham [5.4] Aston Villa [10.0] Man City [14.0] Everton [14.5] Portsmouth [17.0] and Newcastle [23.0].

How can tiny Portsmouth be shorter in price than cash rich Newcastle? If I were a Geordie I would weep into my brown ale. Outside of Tyneside 'Wor Kev' is considered Walt Disney! He is clear second favourite to get sacked behind Curbishley.

Obviously Hull ([1.35]) Stoke ([1.46]) and West Brom ([2.5]) are favourites to go down and rightly so but there is mounting pressure on Gary Megson and Roy Hodgson. It is possible that four or five Premiership bosses could be dismissed before Christmas...

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1. J. STAMP | 15 September 2008

   pablo luna, how on earth can you slag off the great guvnor, paul ince. a superb player, one of englands best. he done a good job at mk dons, who says with his past experiences playing at the top level, under ferguson and playing in italy, he cant be a successful manager. blackburn are a decent side, there not gonna set the premiership on fire, but i think your claims are harsh.
   Pressure on Roy Hodgeson, he has the best fulham side in years. i'm not a fan of hodgeson, but i cant see fulham having another season like the last one.

2. Paul Clough | 15 September 2008

   newcastle have the ability to smash their way into the top 4????????? and Forest will win the league!!!!

3. Jess Pearce | 15 September 2008

   Spot on with some of the predictions. Curbishley out, Keegan out. Wrong about Ince. How can Portsmouth be shorter odds than Newcastle? Easy, Portsmouth are a better organised team.

4. andrew | 04 December 2008

   paul ince is a clown and has to go now or balckburn are going down sack him!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

5. Richie Cunningham | 17 December 2008

   Well done Pablo you got it 100% right you predicted that Ince would not see a second season he did not even see the first one out .

   Can you let me have this weeks lottery numbers ?

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