Football Food For Thought / Ralph Ellis / 27 October 2008 /

Ralph Ellis tells us why now more than ever the strenth of your squad is what determines your finishing league position and looks at players who came off the bench this weekend to "affect the game".

You can tell that football managers and coaches - and the ex players who become TV pundits too - all go to the same summer seminars. Every year there's a buzz word that comes into the football lexicon. And I don't just mean "bouncebackability", the word Iain Dowie invented a couple of years ago and has had to show the meaning of by recovering from a succession of sackings!

Last year's phrase was "decision making". Whenever some hapless player scored an own goal or ploughed into a late tackle to give away a penalty, Andy Gray or Jamie Redknapp would tell us it was an example of "poor decision making". And we'd all just thought it was an example of being a bad player!

This season the trendy saying is about how substitutes can "affect the game". Listen out for it in post match interviews because I heard it umpteen times on TV at the weekend. The difference is that this time the buzz word might actually mean something.

Increasingly in the tight games played in the Premier League it's the strength of the bench that matters, every bit as much as the quality of the eleven players who start the game. And when you're looking for who to back and who to lay, it's well worth taking the whole squad into account - especially if you're betting in-play.

If you can bring a big player off the bench with 20 minutes to go, when other legs and minds are beginning to get fatigued, it can make a genuine impact. That's what Arsene Wenger proved at Upton Park yesterday when he sent on Emmanuel Adebayor with West Ham threatening to frustrate his side.

The giant striker from Togo had only scored in one League game all season - although admittedly that was a hat-trick at Blackburn. So it was a clever stroke of management on Wenger's part to stick him on the bench and make him realise he wasn't untouchable. The response was instant and dramatic, making one goal and scoring another as Gunners chalked up a win to stay in the title race cluster. The Gunners remain the outsiders of the big four for the title at [9.6] even if Wenger believes his side are genuine contenders.

Mind you, if you want real long shots how about Aston Villa at [270.0]? Martin O'Neill showed that for the first time since he took over the club he too has a proper set of options on his bench. He could afford to axe top scorer John Carew from the starting line-up for disciplinary measures - the giant Norwegian was spotted by fans in a lap dancing club the night before Villa's UEFA Cup tie with Ajax. Carew then came on and made one and scored another for a 4-0 romp that made a significant statement about Villa's ability to handle a more crowded fixture list. More realistically they are now [1.67] for a top six finish, and [1.7] favourites for a home win over Blackburn on Wednesday to keep up the pressure on the bigger clubs above them.

Manchester City are bound to have more options too in the second half of the season as Mark Hughes gets to work with the cheque book. It was Dean Sturridge who was the substitute who "affected the game" against Stoke, playing a significant part in both of the second half goals scored by Robinho which kept Tony Pulis's team pinned near the bottom of the table. They don't have choices on the bench and are [1.29] favourites to go down.

Tottenham's relegation odds have shot out from [4.41] last week when Juande Ramos was in charge to [6.8] now Harry 'Houdini' Redknapp has taken over. That just looks even better value to me. Until January Redknapp still has the same group of inexperienced players, including goalkeeper Heurelho Gomes who is having a nightmare, and five points from nine games was exactly the start that Southampton had in 2005 when Harry couldn't keep them up. Redknapp's player to "affect the game" from the bench was Darren Bent who scored the penalty that tied up yesterday's win over ten-man Bolton - but his squad at the moment is pretty thin on numbers. At the very least there will be some sticky times to come, especially after playing Arsenal and Liverpool this week, and the chance to lay it back and lock in a profit.

There were other substitutes that made a difference at the weekend. Clint Dempsey came on to rescue a point for Fulham at Portsmouth, and Benni McCarthy did the same thing for Blackburn against Middlesbrough. Oddly Manchester United, with arguably the best pool of talent, kept Carlos Tevez sat down while they struggled to find a winner at Everton - and Chelsea's options on the bench chasing the game against Liverpool were no better than the relatively raw talents of Scott Sinclair and Franco Di Santo.

Chelsea remain [2.32] favourites for the Premier League, but have now dropped points in both the games they've played against other big four clubs. I've said since the start of the season that Liverpool were the value bet, and while their odds have shortened they are still a generous [5.0]. Rafa Benitez, the master of rotation, has plenty of options to affect the game on his bench even if he chose not to use them yesterday.

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