Football Food For Thought / Nik Wardle / 04 December 2007 /

"Knowledgeable" Nik Wardle tells us why team selection, tactics and injuries are preying on Allardyce's mind

Newcastle have gone five games without a win - losing four of those fixtures. This run has heaped pressure on 'Big' Sam Allardyce who will be desperate to end this winless streak. Unluckily for him, Newcastle's next game is at home to Arsenal. The odds set by Betfair customers of [6.2] for a home victory ([1.71] for The Gunners) reflect the lack of confidence in Big Sam at present. Most have blamed Newcastle's supposed cursed defence. True, but I don't believe this is the sole reason for their poor form. I think Big Sam, like Steve McClaren, has struggled to decide if he should have a system designed around the star players available or fit the players into a formation of his liking.

Much of Big Sam's success at Bolton was built around Kevin Davies. He did a similar job to the one Drogba does at Chelsea: wins headers, unsettles defenders and seeks to score goals - although he hasn't scored anywhere near as many as Drogba, of course. Davies' success as a targetman created opportunities for the likes of Diouf and Giannakopoulos - who frequently fed off balls that Davies had fought for. Could part of Bolton's decline be down to the fact they've had to alter their formation to suit Anelka? Anyway, Big Sam has more attacking talent available to him at Newcastle but has struggled to find the optimum formation. He started off playing 4-4-2 with Owen and Viduka as the strikers.

However, neither of these are in the Davies mode. Viduka has the physique to hold the ball up but his play is more about getting the ball into feet and bringing others into play using neat skill, rather than brute force. I think Big Sam has a real dilemma with Owen. A strikers' primary job is to score goals but the problem with Owen is that if he doesn't achieve this, he offers little to the team. Being short, he's ineffective in the air, he no longer runs with the ball (like against Argentina, nearly a decade ago now) and his work-rate is moderate. Martins is a forward I like but it appears Big Sam sees him as third choice. He has the pace to get behind defenders and his strike rate for Newcastle is decent. It's unlikely Big Sam will want to play two little men up front together, so the Nigerian's appearances may be limited. At the weekend, Alan Smith played up front on his own (a la Davies) with Martins and Milner supporting from wide. Smith has the attributes to play the Davies role but when Owen is fit again, would Big Sam have the nerve to either select Owen in a wider role in a 4-5-1 or leave him out altogether?

Even if Big Sam does decide to go 4-4-2, what does he do with Alan Smith? He spent £7 million on him, so obviously sees him as a first team player. When Viduka and Owen were both fit, Smith was played wide on the right but this isn't his natural position. I think Smith would prefer to play central, where he can scrap - be it in midfield or up front, so do you play him in an unaccustomed role, just to play him?

So far, Big Sam has. And who do you play central midfield out of Barton, Butt, Emre, Geremi or Smith? At Boro, Geremi excelled in central midfield but has often been shifted to right-back at Newcastle - is this the easy option to keep big money players happy or does Big Sam really see this as his best position? He didn't look like a natural when he played there as emergency cover for Chelsea. N'Zogbia is the only fit first team player who gives them natural width in midfield - and he's often been used at left-back. You'd expect Duff to play left-wing when he returns from injury and that'll be bad news for Milner. And as for his best position? Well, sometimes it's easier to be a Betfair blogger.

I think one of Steve McClaren's biggest mistakes at England was that he tried to fit his big-name players in at the expense of the system - Big Sam looks to be heading down this route at Newcastle. I think being able to handle a bunch of big name players and their expectations is what makes a great manager.

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