Football Food For Thought / Frank Gregan / 24 July 2008 /

The merry-go-round's turns are difficult to predict but looking beyond the weaker teams to find trigger-happy chairman may give the best clues as to who's for the chop, says Frank Gregan.

Since the start of last season there have been eleven managerial changes in the Premier League concerning ten different clubs. Chelsea have changed their manager twice in that time. The average tenure of a professional football manager is now seventeen months, just about enough time to be able to learn how to pronounce the player's names.

With the exception of Chelsea, success appears to be rewarded with loyalty. Three managers have served longer than five years at their respective clubs, Sir Alex Ferguson, Arsene Wenger and David Moyes. Sir Alex will have been in charge for twenty two years in November, a truly remarkable achievement.

The odds are that there will be a number of changes in the coming season and there are a lot of managers waiting in the wings for the dreaded axe to fall on a colleague. Sam Allardyce, once linked with every Premier League management vacancy that arose no longer seems to be flavour of the month after the tough time he endured in the North East. Allardyce is probably the only English manager out of a job at the moment likely to get a Premier League club next time around but like the man he replaced at Newcastle, Glen Roeder, he may have to settle for a Championship club as his next employer.

Other English managers with Premier League experience kicking their heels at the moment include Joe Royle, Bryan Robson, Glen Hoddle and John Gregory. All good men but they are not likely to be getting a call from the chairman of one of the big four should a vacancy occur. The only British managers likely to fall into that category are currently in employment, Keane, Hughes, Moyes and Bruce proving the old adage that it's easier to get a job if you are in a job.

It is indicative of the times that should a vacancy at one of the big four arise the odds are that a foreigner will be most likely favourite to land the job. Frank Rijkaard will find himself in the frame along with a possible return of Avram Grant assuming of course the vacancy is not at Chelsea! Guus Hiddink always merits a mention but the person I think has done more than enough to earn himself an opportunity is the Croatian national coach, Slaven Bilic. His agent has done an excellent job in raising his profile with his studio guest appearances during live TV matches and his record thus far is exemplary given the players he has had to work with.

Once the first managerial change market has settled down look for the value and consider a surprise. Hull City and Stoke propping up the league is expected and unlikely to get their respective chairman to act early on. West Brom have slightly higher expectations and their support will be vocal in its criticism if things do not go well during the first couple of months.

I suggest you expect the unexpected and look beyond the usual suspects. Despite his heroic efforts last season in maintaining Fulham's status Roy Hodgson is a short price to be the first out [5.3]. Gareth Southgate always seems to be under pressure at Middlesbrough and a poor start will see his odds shorten from the [6.6] currently available. I suggest that both of those managers will be good lay bets, Hodgson has won over the Fulham faithful and no matter what he does early on in the season they will give him time. In Steve Gibson, Southgate has probably the most level headed chairman in the league who also believes in managerial stability.

Mark Hughes will be a very big price to be the first to go but Mr Thaksin appears to be a man with huge expectation and very little patience. A poor start could see the Welshman under pressure and a match at around [50.0] could bear fruit. Rafael Benitez might finally tire of all the in-house fighting or Arsene Wenger might have to pay the price for not adding the steel and experience that his midfield is crying out for. Wenger in particular could be matched at a very big price with [500.00] currently being asked for. The one thing that is a certainty is that the "no managerial change' option in the market is a definite lay!

When I first started out as a full time manager I was lucky enough to be sitting next to a former Manchester United manager at a Sportsmen's dinner. He offered me some unsolicited advice at the end of the evening, "I'm going to tell you this and it is all you need to remember as a football manager'" he said. He pointed to the table where my Chairman and his Board of Directors were sitting. "Don't ever trust any of them or believe a word they say!" I remember thinking what a bitter man he was. Now, fifteen years on and literally hundreds of directors later I realise it was the best piece of professional advice I was ever given.

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