Football Food For Thought / Dave Farrar / 10 September 2008 /

Dave Farrar tells us about Premiership clubs's refusal to take a gamble on unproven raw talent and why Karim Benzema is still at Lyons.

The transfer window has finally been forced shut with a platinum plated crowbar and this weekend we'll start to get an idea of who has bought well and who has wasted their money. One aspect of the summer's bartering which has struck me over the last couple of years is just how unwilling clubs are to take risks. I'm not talking about huge, "he's done OK for Basingstoke but it's a step up" kind of risks.

We're told that the top clubs in Europe all have worldwide scouting networks and that "there aren't too many players that these guys don't know about", and I'm sure that's the case. But it's one thing knowing about a player, and another in taking a risk on him. And English Premier League clubs have become increasingly guilty of spending the maximum, and buying ready-made players.

Here's a cautionary tale about a European scout for a major English club. He travels painfully long distances to painfully small venues to try and pick up new talent. And he's a good judge, very very good.

Two summers ago, he was told by his boss that he was to find a top class striker. The club wanted someone young, a player who was guaranteed to get at least 15 goals a season, and who had the potential to get 30 plus. He recommended a young French player, Karim Benzema, who he had been impressed with (and indeed had already recommended) at youth level, and in his goalscoring debut in the Champions League.

At that point, Lyon were fully aware of Benzema's worth, but he would have been gettable. When the scout first saw him at the age of 16, they could have paid under four million pounds, and two summers ago, about eight million. The scout went to his club and was told that Benzema was unproven and they couldn't take that risk. Six months later, after Benzema had started to score goals in Ligue 1, the club was getting desperate and the scout was asked the same question about a striker.

His answer was the same, "Benzema", and he was told once again that the club didn't want to take the risk, that the Director of Football "wasn't sure". All the while, the player's worth was escalating, almost by the week. This story goes on and on to the extent that this scout is still working for the same club and, given the level of player that they want and the kind of money that they have, his answer is always the same.

He, as many of us are, is convinced about Benzema. He told me a couple of weeks ago that those in charge at his club are finally convinced, and that a bid for Benzema, probably next summer, will be made. My guess is that he will cost about 40 million pounds. Ten times more than when the scout first saw him.

The thing is that signing any player at any time is a risk, and the big-headed Benzema is by no means a certainty to be a hit in the Premier League. The scout is there to make the mistakes less costly, and yet often scouting networks seem to be there as a sign that clubs are taking the idea of scouting seriously, while not really taking much notice of what the men on the ground are saying. Arsene Wenger is the obvious exception, as, to a certain extent, is Harry Redknapp, but aside from them, those in positions of power at clubs want the finished article, and prefer to stick with what they know, which seriously undermines the point of having a scouting network in the first place..

It wasn't ever thus. Ian Rush had scored 18 goals in 34 games before Liverpool signed him from Chester City nearly 30 years ago. And what isn't well documented is that Rush struggled to adapt initially and was by no means seen as an overnight success. Liverpool showed great patience, and were rewarded when, after getting his first Liverpool goal, Rush couldn't stop scoring and fired them to trophy after trophy.

Yes, I know that football has changed since then and that the gap between the Premier League and the lower divisions has widened. But the value of patience stays the same. Clubs want overnight success, and ready made stars, and it seems that you either graduate to a first team from a youth academy (rare these days at the bigger clubs) or as a result of a big money move.

Clubs in the other top European League all seem prepared to back their scouts and search for bargains. Financial concerns mean that they have to be more watchful. Mauro Zarate, who looked an impressive goalscorer at Birmingham last season, has just scored twice on his debut for Lazio, Angel Di Maria, stunning at the Olympics, will play for Benfica this season, and Ezequiel Garay, arguably the best young centre back in Europe, will be at Real Madrid. My bet is that all three of these Argentine players (plus Kun Aguero, scouted by Atletico Madrid before anyone had really heard of him) will be worth tens of millions of pounds in the seasons to come.

And then, you'll read that a big Premier League club wants to sign them. The window will open, the chequebooks will come out, and for another round of negotiations Premier League clubs will behave like a group of lonely Texan billionaires trying to make friends. Between now and then, the scouts will try to strike oil, if only anyone would listen.

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