Football Food For Thought / Nik Wardle / 09 January 2009 /

"Knowledgeable" Nik Wardle looks at the Chelsea Team Trophy market and tells us why an unbalanced team that is losing its way may end the season empty-handed for a second year running.

Chelsea's opening day 4-0 win against Portsmouth got many people thinking they'd wrestle the Premier League trophy back from Man United. With Boswinga and Cole buccaneering forward from full back and new signing Deco adding guile to the midfield, a successful and easy-on-the -eye-season appeared to be on the cards under new boss Phil Scolari. However, an inability to grind out wins at home has hamstrung Chelsea's progress this season and we're left wondering which trophies (if any) they will have collected come the end of the season.

Chelsea are currently three points behind Liverpool in the Premier League. Defeat for the Blues at Old Trafford on Sunday, coupled with a Liverpool win at Stoke, will see Liverpool six points clear of Chelsea and Man United will be just a point behind them with two games in hand. And we all know United pick up form over the second half of the season. Sunday is a key fixture for Chelsea and in particular Scolari.

Chelsea are unbeaten away from home in the Premier League but rather surprisingly for a side who went 86 games unbeaten at home prior to the Liverpool game in October, they've failed to win more than they've won at home in the league this season. Chelsea are currently at [4.6] to pick up the Premier League as their only trophy of the season.

What's worrying for Chelsea is that their away form is slipping too and in the last ten games in all competitions, they've won just three - two of which were at home to CFR Cluj-Napoca and West Brom. Not trophy winning form.

Chelsea are losing the ability to grind out results. Part of this is down to their more expansive style of football and partly due to missing personnel. Under Mourinho and Grant, Chelsea often played two defensive-minded midfielders, whereas Scolari is favouring just one. Mikel is still fairly new to the defensive midfield role, whereas Essien and Makelele are/were experts. It'll be interesting to see what Scolari does with his midfield when Essien returns.

Scolari appears frustrated that teams 'park the bus' when they go to Stamford Bridge but this is where the ability to nick or save a goal comes in. Opponents also appear to feel they can 'get at' Chelsea a bit more and nick a goal themselves - something that rarely happened under Mourinho or even Avram Grant.

Having lost at home to Burnley on penalties in the Carling Cup, the only domestic cup competition on Chelsea's radar is therefore the FA Cup. If they come through the replay against Southend, it's Ipswich at home next. I'd expect Chelsea to progress to round five - but I'd also expect the rest of the big four, and Aston Villa, to reach that stage too. The Blues are at [9.2] to only win the FA Cup this season and are at [20.0] to do the domestic double.

Juventus and Claudio Ranieri await The Blues in the Champions League. Juventus currently lie second behind Inter Milan in Serie A. Ranieri's desire to win this tie is obvious and I think this is a 50/50 clash. Given the form of Barcelona and Chelsea's record against the other members of the Premier League's Big Four, it'll be difficult for Chelsea to win the Champions League, even if they do knock out Juventus. Odds of [14.0] win just the Champions League and very long odds to couple it with a domestic triumph are proof Betfairians don't expect silverware at Stamford Bridge come May.

Chelsea need a swift return to their old winning mentality but Scolari's comments that Chelsea 'need to score more and get more confidence' makes me think betting on Chelsea to win no trophies at [1.91] is the safest bet.

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