Euro 2008 betting: Will Cannavaro be lifting a trophy again this summer?

Euro 2008 / Mike Norman / 20 March 2008 / 8

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"Mystical" Mike Norman looks into his crystal ball to see which of Van der Sar, Casillas, Ballack, Cristiano Ronaldo, Vieira or Cannavaro will be lifting the Euro 2008 trophy this summer

Captaining your country - it's apparently the greatest honour of a professional footballer's career and "fulfills a childhood dream" as David Beckham once said.

To be a bit controversial, I find the 'greatest honour' remark a bit over the top and that captaining your country is somewhat overrated. Would you be surprised if I told you that the England National Football Team has had over one hundred captains? Yes that's right, over one hundred footballers have captained England on at least one occasion - and equally surprising is the fact that more than twenty players have captained England at least ten times.

Nevertheless, in just 79 days time, Euro 2008 kicks off with Alexandra Frei leading the Switzerland team out to play the Czech Republic, captained by Tomas Rosicky. Whether one of these two captains will get their hands on the trophy come the final on June 29th is unlikely, but you can have [30] about Switzerland winning the tournament, while the Czechs are available at [16.5].

In my eyes there are two kinds of captains. First you have your leaders, a bit like Bryan Robson was (or to a slightly lesser extent Roy Keane). These are the kind of captains who drive the team forward through their graft, determination and reputation, and who are not afraid to speak out and voice their opinions on and off the field. They lead by example and often set the tone of a game with a crunching first minute tackle, or a rollicking to a team-mate to show everyone on the field who's boss.

In Patrick Vieira, France have a captain that fits the above description to a tee. He is an extremely powerful individual who can influence a game simply through his leadership and vocal presence. France have an excellent squad going into Euro 2008 with an exciting blend of youth and experience. They have a tough group to escape from, but I fancy them strongly at odds of [2.94] to finish ahead of Italy, Holland and Romania. To win the tournament outright, France can be backed at [11] and they have to go on the shortlist.

Another team that you must add to the shortlist to win the tournament is Portugal (currently available at [8.8]), and in the sublime Cristiano Ronaldo they have the second type of captain I was referring to earlier. This type of captain is not as vocal as a Roy Keane or a Patrick Vieira, they are more like a David Beckham type of captain - looked up to because of their brilliance and standing within the game.

Whether being the best player on the pitch makes you a good captain is very debatable, because for me I'd much rather have a tough tackling, vocal, highly motivated leader to look up to than a skillful attacker who says little. Which type do you prefer?

I'm not a great fan of a goalkeeper being a captain, but both Spain and Holland employ one in Iker Casillas and Edwin van der Sar respectively. The problem with a goalkeeper being a captain is that he can't walk 100 yards to the other end of the pitch to put his arm around his striker and offer words of encouragement. For me, encouraging and believing in your team-mates is an essential part of being a captain - I just don't see how goalkeepers can do this in the same was as an outfield player can.

Spain, with some top class youngsters in their squad, can be backed at [1.94] to win Group D, while the odds about Casillas lifting the trophy are [7.0]. Holland will do well to escape the 'group of death' and should be opposed at [3.75] to top Group C, making them a massive lay at [14.5] in the 'Outright Winner' market and at [7.2] to reach the final.

'Inspirational' is another word often branded about when referring to captains, and I can honestly say this is the case when talking about Italy's Fabio Cannavaro. He is a tremendous leader on the pitch, a fantastic player, and he can't help but inspire the players around him. Cannavaro would love to get his hands on the European Championship trophy, just like he did when he lifted the World Cup a couple of years ago. Italy are experienced, but I think they lack quality these days and I wouldn't be keen to take the [8.4] about them winning the tournament. They are [2.72] to win their group.

Tournament favourites at [5.8] are Germany and they will go very close, led by Michael Ballack. I can't really say much about Ballack as a captain as I haven't seen him in this role frequently, but as a player he oozes class - and with some talented individuals around him, Germany are a cracking bet at [1.73] to win Group B.

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Rianbowwardy | 21 March 2008

Hi Mike, just a few comments to make regarding your assessment. Before every international tournament I do an in-depth study & I was fortunate enough to see 17 games in Germany 06, including both semis & the final. My predictions before that tournament were that I couldn't point to the winner but I did state as a matter of public record (ask The Boz)that neither Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain, England or Portugal would win it. My analysis of Euro 08 varies from yours on the following points.
1)Germany still do not have the talent, they couldn't handle the Italians in Germany & I see no evidence of why they should be able to now.
2)France have no Zidane. Game breaker & penalty taker extraordinaire. They do still have an incredibly good defence.
3)Portugal lack discipline & tactical nous under fire (NB: against 10 man England in Germany they still couldn't score in open play.)Brilliant at 'cheating', poor when things go wrong.
4)Spain have immense talent but lack consistency.
5) The Dutch may be over their player-power era but have serious problems adapting to the necessary style of internationals. They also have a questionable temperament when things go wrong eg Germany 06.
6)Italy are still improving. They are also 'tournament proven' & World Cup winners have gone on to win the following Euro. Why you think they won't be as good is a mystery to me.

The difference between Euro's & World Cups is that Euro's quite often throw up an unexpected winner & the World Cup never does. Remember the Czechs being dragged back of their hols because Yugoslavia were excluded? How about Greece beating Portugal twice in Portugal 2004? Home advantage is also more negligible in Euro's, so I can't give any chance to Austria & only an outsiders one to Switzerland.
So I'm looking at the possibility of the same 4 semi-finalists as per Germany ie: France, Italy, Portugal, Germany & a small saver on the Czechs, whose campaign in 06 was ruined by significant early injuries.
My last point on this is that 'the best laid plans' are often wrecked by referees, usually those who love the spotlight & favour flashing the card at every opportunity. International tournaments are a big stage for them to perform on. Always check out who's refereeing which games, my analysis (over decades) shows that Scandinavians generally manage best & Southern Europeans (particularly Spanish & Portugese)do worst.
The umissable games could be:
1)Italy v Portugal
2)Holland v Germany
The Unmissable game as scheduled:
France v Italy

Can I also say that I'm in complete agreement with you about goalkeeper captains & the two types of characters you identified as fitting the bill. The job as England's future captain is interesting but Capello has alreay stated what his first requirement is 'discipline'! He thinks a lot like Erikkson I think, do you agree? In which case he also values 'calm' on the pitch & in the dressing room. Doesn't this speak against John Terry & Rio Ferdinand & in favour of Gerard & Owen? I'm betting Gerard. What about you?
Mike | 22 March 2008

Hi Rian (I hope calling you Rian is ok).

May I first thank you immensely for your detailed and excellent post - I appreciate the time and effort you must have put into it.

I take all your points on board about the individual countries that you mention. Yes Portugal lack discipline at times, but in Ronaldo, Nani and Quaresma they have the ability to destroy any team. They remind me slightly of Keegan's Newcastle (first time around) in that they could be brilliant going forward but I'm that confident about them defensively - however I do feel they will outscore most teams and go well.

Regarding France, they are excellent in defence and a bit like Portugal they have some fine youngsters in Ben Arfa and Benzema.

Yes I agree that Germany may not have the talent, or the individual talent at least, but they do have an unrivalled team spirit and collectiveness about them when it comes to big tournaments. I also think that in Podolski they have an exceptional forward - I really like this guy.

So my three against the field would be Germany, Portugal and France (not very original I know).

As for captain of England I'm 100% in agreement about John Terry. He is the first to berate refs when a decision goes against his team and I don't think that's what Capello wants - or will stand for.

Gerrard is more in the mould of an inspirational captain in the sense that he can lift his team-mates either by his brilliance on the field or by his motivational skills and determination. He is also a captain who will pull players away from explosive situations rather than get involved himself. I think he is an outstanding player and would be a great choice to be England captain.

Once again, many thanks for your reply. I look forward to reading more of your excellent comments.
Rainbowwardy | 24 March 2008

Thanks Mike.
I'm wondering more and more about the England captaincy, sparked by stuff on here & a discussion with somebody who has spent time with Steven Gerard. Perhaps there is far more to this than meets the eye or gets into the public domain? Given the PR discipline that players are under I'm wondering if there's actually no love lost between Gerard & the 3 or 4 Chelsea regulars in the England squad. I can't see Terry or Lampard respecting Gerard in the same way that they are forced to respect Beckham & given all the stuff that's gone on about Gerard v Lampard could it be that the Chelsea players are capable of a collective disrespect or attitude, especially once they're actually on the pitch? I so wish I had some video footage of their games together, just to check out their body language & gestures. Any info or insights to explore this?
Dave.
Mike | 25 March 2008

Hi Dave,

I think the 'Lampard v Gerrard' saga has been going on for years and was sparked in the main from internet forums, pub talk, media etc and I think Gerrard is on record as saying the comparisons between them both doesn't bother him.

From what I've seen I have no reason to believe that they don't get on well with each other, but I'm a Northerner who has never been in the company of these guys or people close to them - so you will no doubt know more than me on this.

Regarding footage, you can usually get a lot of stuff on 'youtube', but again, from what I've seen, their body language doesn't give anything away.

I see that Rio Ferdinand got the nod as captain for tomorrow's game - what do you think of this, good or bad?

I like Rio, he is a hell of a defender as well as being a footballer who can bring the ball out of defence. He very rarely gets involved with incidents on the pitch and he seems to be a man with a lot of determination and influence. So basically, I think it could be a good shout.

How much we can read into him being captain tomorrow as a long term thing is debatable. What do you think?
Dave Ward | 26 March 2008

Hi Mike,
I should have seen it coming really, but despite decades of study I'm still learning. It wasn't going to be any Chelsea player, or Gerard, that much should have been clear to me because of Gerard's inadequacies as displayed against Croatia & more recently for Liverpool, particularly v Man U. There are a few things that are worth watching out for tonight, from which we'll learn a lot. The first is how the defence performs. If you study defences seperate from team performance since 1998 England's is in the top 5 in the world in tournament play. Remember Japan/S.Korea 2002, when, despite being in the so called 'group of death' we only conceded goals to Brazil, the eventual winners? Remember 10 men gainst Portugal in Germany? The defence against Croatia was a totally new combination which was where it all went wrong. I think Capello knows what his ideal defence is and as a coach I suspect he's always known when not to mess with things. So despite this being a friendly & whatever changes he may make for now,I expect to see the same faces when it comes to qualifying for 2010.
The second thing is that there were signs against Switzerland that he was eradicating England's worst trait, falling back too deep when they get a lead. Most people tend to forget that some of England's best results have come when they've fallen behind eg 5-1 in Germany,but this creates a serious dilemma, you can't go out to play this way. When it comes to holding on to the lead who better to tell you than an Italian? Having seen a new beginning against the Swiss I'm keen to see further progress on this one and it might just be why he wants Ferdinand as skipper. He definitely needs a defender who's capable of moving out with the ball at his feet and that's not Terry either. What's specifically interesting about Ferdinand is that he's extremely clever at knowing how to play referees and when he can get away with what. I don't think he has any problems with Terry either.
He knows that under FIFA's current guidelines he's the only player entitled to speak to the ref & that ref's will look for him when they've got problems. In other words, he doesn't need to go charging at him, the way Terry does. He's much better equipped 'emotionally' and knows that. I think he'll keep the job now, which poses the interesting question, who will capatain England when he's not unavailable or has to come off the field? Will it be Terry? If it isn't then we'll know a lot more.
The last thing I'm watching for is if and how he plays Gerard. I've wondered for a while now how Gerard would perform 'up front'. To understand why you have to go back a long way, to the early days of Glen Hoddle. One season Spurs had no forwards to start the season with and were forced to play Hoddle up front. You'd have to look up the exact stats somewhere (I've forgotten the precise numbers) but he scored an amazing number of goals. This wasn't a fluke, most high scoring mid-fielders could do the same. They understand the right space to be in because they're used to delivering into it.
I've become sufficiently motivated from this discussion to download stats on Capello's championship winning teams, if I can find them. And I'm keeping stats and my eyes on all the WC qualifiers going on round the world this week. If you'd like I could summarise and send them but I'm not sure if this is the right place, I don't normally share them with the world. But if you can find my email address I'd be willing to keep you informed in the run-up to 2010. Or even write a piece if needs be. Thanks for being interested. I should also say that International Football is my serious interest, not club football.
Dave
Tom March | 26 March 2008

You're forgetting England also conceded against Sweden in a 1-1 draw at the 2002 World Cup, other than the two against Brazil.
Tom March | 26 March 2008

You're forgetting England also conceded against Sweden in a 1-1 draw at the 2002 World Cup, other than the two against Brazil.
Dave Ward | 26 March 2008

Thanks Tom you're right of course. And England were actually far luckier v Nigeria in the intense heat.