English Football League / Sean Calvert / 20 August 2007 /

The Man with the Baggie Trousers Sean Calvert tells us who his money is on

The Top Goalscorer market in this year's Championship looks as tricky as ever and it may take an inspired piece of punting genius to sort the men from the boys and produce a healthy profit, but let's have a look at some of the options.

This market has a habit of producing some big price winners, especially in comparison to the Premier League, where the outcome over the last five seasons has been wins for Thierry Henry (3 times), Ruud van Nistelrooy and Didier Drogba. Not much foresight required for success there then, but the Championship is different and here's why.

No one can say with any certainty who will be Championship top dog in any given season and even if we get that right, there's no guarantee that the top scorer will come from the top teams. For example, last season's winner was Jamie Cureton of Colchester (odds of 22 on Betfair), who finished outside the play-off places and in second place by one goal was Michael Chopra from another team outside the play-offs, Cardiff City.

In 2003/04, Andy Johnson romped to victory by seven goals from his nearest rival when representing sixth placed Crystal Palace and as a West Brom fan, I can assure you that 2004/05 top scorer - Nathan Ellington (50) - won't be anywhere near repeating the feat this season. In fact, the last time an Albion player topped the scoring charts in this league was 1998/99 when a certain Lee Hughes notched 31 league goals and the team finished in a lowly 13th place.

Even Lee Hughes' 31 goal tally was dwarfed by Guy Whittingham's astonishing 42 league goals for Portsmouth in 1992/93 and that record surely won't be beaten, this or any season.

The fact that no player has won this accolade twice since John Aldridge and John McGinlay in the mid-90's, counts out Svetoslav Todorov at 30, Kevin Phillips at 17.5, Cureton at 22 and Marlon King at 8.2 and the pleasing fact that no Wolves player has tasted success in this market, added to his renowned homesickness doesn't bode well for Fredy Eastwood at 22, who will more than likely be disappearing back inside the M25 in January.

I don't see a Bryan Robson side being anything but poor creatively, so James Beattie at 11 and Billy Sharp at 20 are poor value and Southampton don't appear to carry the same threat as last season, so out go the Poles, Grzegorz Rasiak at 17 and Marek Saganowski at 15.5 too and as for Robbie Fowler, well 17.5 is no value at all and Cardiff will be fortunate of he makes that number of appearances, let alone goals. New signing Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink would be of interest, but he hasn't been added to the market as yet.

Having discounted some of the favourites then, it could be worth making a case for some big priced outsiders and how about Sylvan Ebanks-Blake at 42 to cause an upset? This lad is quick and direct and was highly rated at Manchester Utd when playing with Giuseppe Rossi in the reserves before a broken leg put paid to his career there. Plymouth should do all right this season and Ebanks-Blake notched in the away win at Hull last week to get him off to a good start.

Other lively outsiders to consider could be QPR's Chelsea loanee Ben Sahar at 26; our own Craig Beattie (if he stays injury free) at 36; and Izale McLeod of Charlton also at 36.

Plenty of options to consider and I think my money will be going on Ebanks-Blake to stay clear of injury and go close at a decent price.

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