Watford's poor home form is unlikely to improve against Wolves

English Football League / Andrew French / 01 February 2008 / 1

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Andrew French looks at the betting opportunities as the Hornets plot to sting a pack of Wolves who are steadily moving up the table...

If Watford are going to go up automatically, then their dreadful run at home has to end. Quickly.

The Hornets host Wolverhampton Wanderers for the second time in a week tomorrow afternoon in front of the Sky cameras, chasing their first league victory on their own soil since October 20th. This is a team that once led the Championship by 12 points, and is still sitting pretty in third, only two points off the pace.

Yet their last eight league fixtures at Vicarage Road have seen them garner a miserable three points. That's relegation form. However, nine away victories have kept the Hornets in the mix although if they don't start winning again at home soon, it's doubtful they can sustain their bid to bounce back to the Premiership.

Manager Aidy Boothroyd has lost star striker Marlon King during the transfer window, the striker heading north to Wigan for an initial £3m. However, that has allowed Watford's record signing, £3.25m Nathan Ellington, a chance to stake a claim and he has netted twice in his last three outings.

Ellington scored at Sheffield United on Tuesday, but Watford came back with more than just a point from Bramall Lane - they also signed Blades defender Leigh Bromby for £600,000, and have added to their midfield ranks with the capture of Stoke City skipper John Eustace for £250,000.

Everything suggests Boothroyd does need to shake things up, particularly after last weekend's 4-1 drubbing by Wolves in the FA Cup. The Watford boss fielded a team weakened by a combination of injuries and his decision to give a couple of regulars a breather.

If those 'refreshed' players steer the Hornets to victory tomorrow then the painful exit from the cup will be put to the backs of supporters' minds. If, however, the fillip of such an emphatic away win inspires Wolves to do the same again then Boothroyd's decision may not look so wise.

The Molineux club are the archetypal sleeping giant. Once a regular in the top flight of English football, memories of those great days grow more distant with each near miss as they try to get back up.

They're on the edge of the promotion race right now, and manager Mick McCarthy will know his side must start moving up the table soon or risk another 'so nearly' campaign. The former Republic of Ireland boss turned down the chance to move back into international management earlier in the season - he will be acutely aware that not getting Wolves into the Premiership soon may mean the decision to stay at Molineux is taken out of his hands.

Much-touted Colchester defender George Elokobi was Wolves' deadline-day capture, and they also secured the services of Coventry striker Kevin Kyle on loan until the end of the season.

McCarthy's men have won their last three and are unbeaten in five away trips.

The first goal will be crucial tomorrow. If Watford get it, they will visibly grow in confidence: if it goes to Wolves, the home fans - tortured by months of not winning - will doubtless voice their discontent.

My feeling is that the Hornets may have to settle for a point tomorrow. Wolves are just starting to put a little run together, and with Watford likely to make a number of changes to accommodate their new faces, there is always the question of how quickly they will gel.

I will be backing the draw at [3.35]. Watford are available to back at [2.42] while you can back Wolves at [3.35].

If you're looking for some value, consider backing Wolves/Draw at [16.5], as if Watford do go behind, they will certainly throw everything at the visitors.

Lastly, I'm also considering backing Over 2.5 goals at [2.34]. The last five meetings between the two clubs have averaged 3.4 goals each, while Watford's last five home games have produced, on average, 3.8 goals.

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Peter | 01 February 2008

A well written article in my opinion. Wolves have improved recently and Watford are missing King who caused problems in the opposition's defence but now have Ellington scoring. I have decided to lay Watford not to win on BF.