English Football League / Ian Lamont / 13 August 2009 /

Ian Lamont is baffled by Notts County's price to keep up their winning ways and reckons Lee Hughes is too short in the top goalscorer market. Meanwhile, there's plenty of value around the country this weekend...

After the optimism and adrenalin of the opening day, a real picture emerges on the second weekend of the season.

There is therefore plenty of opportunity for big tempters. I still find it remarkable - if Notts County are the runaway favourites for the title - that they are as long as [2.0] to win at a modest Macclesfield side.

I fear my allergy to backing anything at evens on Murphy's Law grounds will prevent me taking "advantage", if indeed it proves to be. Instead, I shall content myself with a lay on Lee Hughes to be top scorer at [4.6], remarkably skinny after a single game. A hat-trick prompted the price plummet, but we are only in August. You could look on this as a lay to back. But in a market only for fun seekers I reckon others like Bury's Andy Bishop at [28.0] will, when fit again, present far better value, alongside Torquay's Scott Rendell at [34.0].

Serious value hunters should focus this weekend on some true value on the likes of Shrewsbury, Aldershot and, dare I say it, Accrington.

Yes, even the worst teams like Stanley are bound to pick up points. Even though I hate to rely on cup football as a guide, they came from behind to beat Walsall midweek in the Carling Cup. Being transfer-listed seems to have geed up Paul Mullin and Stanley, if they are to pick up points, must do so at home.

Much-changed Lincoln are the visitors, but Janos Kovacs can't do everything on his own and John Coleman's side just might have the desire in front of what admittedly is a sparce home crowd to eek out three points at [2.46] with Lee McColville and Jimmy Ryan producing a little bit of impetus.

Paul Simpson's Shrewsbury are overpriced at [2.58] away to Barnet. The price is surely influenced by the Shrews' poor away record last term, but such things rarely repeat themselves. The manager looks likely to persist with Dave Hibbert up front after his return from injury, in place of new signing Kris Bright. Jake Robinson, too, might add that little dimension to Shrewsbury that they were missing last season.

This is the type of match the visitors should win if they want promotion, while I am not expecting Ian Hendon's Bees to make great waves. Experienced Gary Breen might have gelled at the back, but mid-table will be their top-end aim.

Aldershot, meanwhile, are suddenly being tipped for a play-off push on the back of a 3-1 win over Darlington, a result which ultimately might say more about Colin Todd's men than the Shots. However, new arrivals like Adam Hinshelwood and Ben Herd have given the Hampshire outfit a considerably more secure defensive outlook than in recent times. That also allows Louie Soares to concentrate on what he does best, roaming down the wing, rather than tracking back. It can only be to the benefit of the slick Marvin Morgan as he seeks to nail down a regular striker's slot. At [4.6] they are the sort of huge price I successfully noted Dagenham at last weekend. While I shall be nibbling at that cake, I shall cautiously recommend the lay on Rochdale, thereby covering the draw.

The loss of Adam le Fondre to Rotherham is a blow for Dale, although quite why Keith Hill could not fit him in with Will Buckley is a mystery.

Torquay, meanwhile, might have been held at bay most of the time by Crystal Palace on Tuesday night, but the visitors converted 50 per cent of their chances. OK, they only created two - both Tim Sills headers - but it is a measure of how deceptively good he is that he took one. While, as you would expect, Championship defenders kept him and Rendell under wraps, there was no doubt Rendell will prove a good foil for the established Sills. Having a sturdy, hungry young player willing to take on the donkey work and drop back into midfield looking for the ball, as Rendell did, will benefit the Gulls. Expect Danny Stevens and Elliott Benyon to produce chances.

If there is one punt worth taking this weekend it is Torquay's trip to Dagenham to produce over 2.5 goals. Paul Benson got his wish that Jon Nurse would partner him - and John Still's men will always score.

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