English Football League / Ian Lamont / 29 May 2010 /

A season of League Two watching comes down to Sunday's showdown between Dagenham and Rotherham where Ian Lamont fancies Paul Benson to continue his smoking hot form (sorry)...

First goalscorer
Last year this column correctly predicted Simeon Jackson would score the first goal in the League Two play-off final. It took him until the 90th minute to do it, mind.

It seemed a straight choice between Jackson and Shrewsbury's Grant Holt and this year there is a similar battle between the hot-shots, Rotherham's Adam Le Fondre on one side. On the other, however, there are a multiple of choices on the other side, starting with Paul Benson, continuing with Josh Scott and Danny Green.

Benson, who has netted 21 goals, has, at least, been first to score for Dagenham in a match - although not necessarily the game's first scorer - 10 times this season, including in both legs of the stunning 7-2 aggregate win over Morecambe in the semi-finals. His fans should look for [6.5] on him. Scott scored four of his 16 against the Shrimpers and has peaked back at the right time, but I think he can be overlooked in favour of midfielder Green, if you want a bit of value, at [11.0].

Le Fondre, having been the Millers' first scorer in a game 18 times, is a worthy favourite and if you can get [5.5] take it. The pocket dynamo proved against Aldershot that he can do little for 90 minutes, then pop up with the winner. One way or another, this is one player heading for League One next season - so he keeps telling boss Ronnie Moore every time he nets in training!

Overall winner
Daggers boss John Still has played the underdog tag well, but now it is wearing thin. We know from their fans' chants that the Daggers are "just a pub team from Essex", the likes of Benson stepping up from seriously minor football over the years.

It really would be a fairytale - a much overused word - if they could pull off victory, priced at [2.84] for 90 minutes, which is when I expect this tie to be settled.

The fact that Dagenham often score goals at will, and that Wembley is pretty close to Essex compared to Rotherham, means that the Millers are not odds-on favourites when they really should be close to that.

Dagenham's rise from their non-league routes mean they will have little pressure. There is no expectation from the wider footballing community that they can suddenly leap out of their pattern of gradual progression and make League One. I fear it would be a step too far - and too early for a club still small, relatively speaking, based on crowd averages.

Rotherham, however, would have made the play-offs - and almost automatic promotion - last year without their huge points deduction. They were among the favourites for the league title this time around.

They have pulled round poor form going into the play-offs when it mattered, with a composed defensive performance led by skipper Ian Sharps, alongside Nick Fenton, at Aldershot in the first leg giving them a platform to win the tie.

With Nicky Law probing at the front and Pablo Mills offering solidity in the middle, mixed in with roving Kevin Ellison's sweet left-foot, they should be able to convert the value of [2.7] on a 90-minute victory into profit.

Over/under 2.5 goals
Even on Wembley's pitch of ill-repute this game smells of goals, over 2.5 goals seeming most likely at [2.16]. Over the years, when both semis produce goals, so do the finals, and vice-versa. While neither Rotherham-Aldershot match produced more than two, Dagenham have enough firepower to ensure that Rotherham will not keep a clean sheet.

Half-time/full-time
Having said that, the first half could be tight as both sides adjust to the surface at the FA's headquarters, which has been relayed so many times I'm thinking of sending them some of my new lawn!

A draw at half-time seems quite probable as Rotherham's strong defensive unit tries their darnedest to keep Dagenham's embarrassment of striking power at bay. Then the game could open up in the second half, leaving the draw/Rotherham bet as the one to pick at [6.6]. Anyone wanting a racier bet might like Dagenham to score first, stirring Rotherham into action and winning at [38].

Recommended Bets:
Rotherham to win in 90 minutes [2.7]
First goalscorer Paul Benson at [6.5]
Over 2.5 goals at [2.16]
Draw/Rotherham in the half-time/full time result at [6.6]

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