England Cricket / Ralph Ellis / 01 January 2010 /

Despite being one down with two to play, South Africa remain favourites to win the third Test against England. They'll have to work very hard to break down England's reinvigorated batsmen, says Ralph Ellis.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't England just win the second Test in South Africa by an innings and nearly 100 runs? Or was it all just a wonderful dream?

I'm beginning to suspect the latter after checking out the odds for the third Test that starts in Cape Town on Sunday, because Graeme Smith and his team are starting as [2.6] favourites. And South Africa are no longer than [6.2] to win the series, so they can't possibly be a match down with only two to play, can they?

Stuart Broad, bowling hero of last weekend's excellent win, has been telling the Daily Mail today how he'd copied film of Shaun Pollock to adapt his action to South African conditions - and the ball he produced as a result was the one that got the crucial second innings wicket of Jacques Kallis.

But despite his continued improvement, and the outstanding consistency of Graeme Swann, it's the batting that remains the key. I wrote when England coach Andy Flower recruited Graham Gooch to give his line-up some coaching tweaks that the key to success on this tour would be with the willow. And that's exactly how it has turned out. Gooch, incidentally, is sitting on a nice profit for the Bobby Moore foundation from his charity selection when he did Betfair's Big Interview, and his belief that England could win the series now looks well founded.

Gooch inspired some new confidence before he came back home. Even Alastair Cook and Ian Bell, the two men who had been struggling for form, found their touch at Kingsmead, and a quick glance at the batting statistics tells you that Andrew Strauss and his team have all hit form when it matters. After three innings each, only 22 runs separate the totals from the top four batsmen. Strauss actually has the lowest aggregate with 101, but six have got more than him including Graeme Swann. The skipper has looked in form though and is due to make big runs, so [7.4] for him to be the leading series bat is tempting.

Paul Collingwood, top scorer on 167 so far, is having a fitness test today on the finger he dislocated in fielding practice, and the word is that if he doesn't make it then Hampshire's Michael Carberry will step straight into the side for his debut. That maintains the consistency of policy of keeping the strongest possible batting line-up, and it makes all the more sense now the series has become about avoiding defeat rather than winning.

If South Africa are favourites for the Cape Town test, you suspect it is based only on history. It's the venue where they are traditionally strongest, winning 14 of the last 20 Tests they have played there and losing only to Australia. England have lost by 10 wickets in 1996, an innings and 37 in 2000, and 196 runs in 2005.

But if you are looking to have a bet this weekend, it seems to me that what happened last week is far more relevant history than what happened 14, 10 or five years ago. South Africa's current bowling line-up is the weakest it has been for years, with Kallis not fully fit, Makhaya Ntini over the top, and Dale Steyn not finding anything extra. Lay South Africa at [2.6] and make some more money!

Five things you might not know about Michael Carberry

1. Born in Croydon, full name Michael Alexander, in September 1980 he started his career with Surrey but struggled to make an impact

2. He moved to Hampshire in 2006 and credits Shane Warne with sitting him down and talking to him to save his career

3. A brilliant fielder, he's the quickest cricketer over 50 metres according to Sky stats

4. He's got a part time business as a club DJ which he started up as a winter job six years ago.

5. He was on standby for the Oval Ashes Test until he broke a finger batting for Hampshire. At the time he was 14 runs away from his fifth first class century of the season. Ten championship innings brought him an average of 128.

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