Second Ashes Test: Live in-running blog - day 3

STOP PRESS Michael Vaughan says this; "Weather will be fine.. Rough patch developing nicely for Swann.. He will Get 5 in the 2nd innings... Have faith." STOP PRESS

LUNCH 02.06 Eng 449-3, England lead by 204
That has been a good morning of punting and pontificating. We got with England at the right time, just before the match odds market woke up as to what is happening. England are totally dominant, ending the session with a run rate of 5.08. But in truth, Australia have been so bad it has been comical at times. They are not even competeing. Where is this famed aggression they boast about? Simply, if they do not have a Warne or McGrath for them to hide behind they're nothing. Looking ahead, the advice is to let our England wagers run - we were on at [2.00] yesterday and [1.78] today. We expect there to be panic for the draw layers if England pick up a quick wicket when they declare. Say Australia are 20-1, England may be [1.35]. There are a potential 244 overs left in this Test. When you look at it like that, there may need to be an awful lot of rain to save Australia. The draw is [2.66]. Thanks for your company. I'll return after the close with a wrap of what's happened and what might.

01.54 Eng 434-3
Give yourself a pat on the back. We got with England just in time. Shortening quite nicely now. Into [1.65]

01.50 Eng 430-3
Xavier Doherty is hauled off after his five overs cost 30 runs. England lead by 183. They are [1.69]. And good signs there as a Marcus North spinner bites and leaps to leg. That will interest Graeme Swann. A few signs this morning that there is something in this pitch for the bowlers.

01.43 Eng 424-3
I think the market has finally woken from its slumber. England into [1.70] as Doherty gets his ton up. No wickets of course.

01.41 Eng 420-3
Doug 'the Rug' Bollinger is back on. He has bowled in exactly the fashion you would expect of a man wearing a toupee. In his 21 overs, he is yet to bowl a maiden. Worcestershire fans will not be surprised. He had a spell with them in 2007. He was dreadful. His 16 wickets cost 44 each and he didn't manage a five-wicket haul. And he couldn't even use the toupee excuse. He was bald back then.

01.35 Eng 412-3
Blog chum Kevin Dunkley says on Twitter; "Can't wait to see the panic from the draw lovers when that 1st Aussie wicket goes down." Couldn't have put it better myself.

01.30 Eng 409-3
I've been relaying my thoughts via Twitter, too. The bemusement about the betting is largely widespread. Join in here. Michael Vaughan, the former England captain, and Betfair colleague, has been in touch to say about England's price "Put plenty on mate... no brainer."

01.17 Eng 392-3
If you've spotted that the scenarios we've mentioned so far do not include Australia bowling England out fret not, it's deliberate. They've had a new ball this morning, been largely dreadful and the session run rate is five an over. Jeez, England remain a corker of a bet at [1.78]. They've actually drifted in price since the start of play. Bonkers.

01.14 Eng 388-3
Continuing to muse over what England will do here. They could bat past tea, charged by Andrew Strauss to 'go nuts' - that's a technical term - for 30 minutes and then stick in Australia. The thinking would be that they would be trying to possibly win the game by an innings.

01.11 Eng 387-3
This was Jonathan Agnew's view of Australia's short-ball tactics. "Ricky has lost it. Official. Unbelievable tactics against KP. Never seen batsman premeditating pull shot before."

00.57 Eng 367-3
If England bat for another 45 overs - meaning they could shove in Australia just before tea giving them 30 overs or so - then they could have a whopping lead. If they repeated their innings run rate of 3.6 you are looking at 165 runs from those overs alone. They may even go quicker than that, especially as Australia are embarrassing themselves at the mo with a harebrained plan to bowl short at KP.

00.51 Eng 361-3
There is just no movement on the odds folks. England are [1.75] and the draw is [2.40]. England's price will shift when they declare or they start batting in the manner that they are prepoaring for one. So if you want a back-to-lay option taking a wedge on the tourists now and laying off when the fun begins - it will really contract if they took an early wicket - is child's play really. When will the declaration come? I'll try to work out that now.

00.42 Eng 351-3
Weather update. The groundsman has spoken with the local weather bod, Mickey Fish or whatever his name is, and there will be no rain until Tuesday. See it's very changeable this stuff. Paul Collingwood is in. Poor David Lloyd didn't recognise him. He's been waiting for days to have a bat.

WICKET 00.38 Eng 351-3
A Cook c Haddin b Harris 148

00.37 Eng 351-2
Two really good bouncers in a row have rocked KP. Ryan Harris delivered them. JC has been in touch about the Aussie quick. "He looks like a bloke from the crowd who brought his kit on the off chance."

00.33 Eng 348-2
Pietersen's ton interrupted our natter about the weather. I recommended backing England at [2.00] early on day two. I'm happy with the wager. I thought it was a keeper. But we may have to consider the possibility of laying off because of that forecast. It is only a possibility, though. It would be a dereliction of duty not to consider it. It is perfectly possible that the forecast for day five could have changed by the end of play tonight so keep your eyes and ears open.

00.28 Eng 343-2
A century for Kevin Pietersen. That's his 17th Test ton, his third against Australia and his first since making 102 against West Indies in Port-of-Spain in March last year. A total of 27 innings have passed since. Each of England's top five now have a ton in this series.

00.20 Eng 329-2
There is rain forecast for the last day, however. I found this on weatherzone.com.au earlier: "The second Ashes Test underway at Adelaide Oval is likely to be affected by showers and storms, potentially leading to delays or even a complete washout. A trough moving eastwards across South Australia will trigger showers on Monday, increasing on Tuesday with the potential for thunderstorms and much heavier rainfall. Over 20 millimeters of rainfall between Monday and early Wednesday is likely, which will certainly factor into the on-pitch tactics."

00.11 Eng 324-2
Let's chat about the weather. I am English after all. Nasser Hussain says there are only a few showers knocking about today and tomorrow and the forecasts I've seen concur with that. You shouldn't allow such a weather prediction to impact on your batting strategy. It is just not severe enough. You could argue that this is the main reason for England's price remaining so steady. Personally, I think it's more to do with bettors reckoning that if England can bat like this, so can Australia.

00.00 Eng 317-2
As play gets underway, the first thing to say is that Australia still have a new ball. So if there are going to be wickets, they should come pretty sharpish. The trend in the series has been for first-over drama. Doug 'the Rug' Bollinger is looking to make something happen.

23.47
Here are the prices then on the match-odds market: Australia [46.00], England [1.77] and the draw [2.38]. Have a read of some analysis here, bearing in mind it was written this morning (Saturday)

23.40
Welcome to the blog for day three of the action of the second Test. On the face of it, we have a thriller on our hands. But a dark cloud is hanging over what could be a really interesting day's play. The forecast has been more changeable than the, er, weather over the last 24 hours. One site says it will rain, another says it won't, one more says it might do. We have plans to clarify the situation so we can make profits. So, prepare to be amateur meteorologists for a couple of hours. I'll be Michael Fish. Who are you going to be?