Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 04 December 2010 /

Ed Hawkins tells you what to expect from the action at Adelaide tonight. Join him from 00.00 for his live -in-running betting blog until lunch

This time of year is all about wishing for mythical beings that bring unexpected and wondrous gifts. Santa, though, only costs you a mince pie and a glass of sherry. So no harm done. England cricketers winning in Australia has been a far more expensive fairy story down the years.

Yet it is time to show a little faith. Deck the halls etcetera because something very big indeed could be about to come down your chimney. England are a whopping [1.77] to win the second Test in Adelaide and take the lead in a series Down Under for the first time since 1986.

They lead by 72 runs with eight first-innings wickets in hand after a dominant display from centurion Alastair Cook, Jonathan Trott and Kevin Pietersen. And yet bettors simply do not believe. It's like leaving only a solitary carrot for Rudolph.

England began the day on 1-0 at [1.91]. Eighty-eight overs, two wickets and 316 runs later and their price has dipped by only 0.14 points. Immediately after the wicket of Andrew Strauss, who shouldered arms to Doug Bollinger in the first over, they were [2.00]. Throughout the day there was as much give in their price as Vanessa Feltz's track pants.

The reason for such a steady price is belief, or lack of it. Simply, punters do not reckon that England's bowling attack is good enough to take 20 wickets on this flat Adelaide surface. Memories are also fresh of the drawn first Test at Brisbane when Australia found themselves in a similarly dominant position, only to be denied by a bland wicket. The draw is [2.52].

Rationale goes something like this: 'well if England are finding the wicket so easy now then Australia will do the same'. It's a nonsense and a slight on England. Do not make the mistake of thinking that England's bowling attack is as poor as Australia's listless, leaderless and one-paced collection.

There is also a bit of a panic on about the weather. England supporters have been worrying about the forecast, which looks perfectly adequate. Only one heavy shower forecast for the next three days.

Let us use common sense, however. The match-odds market is reactive, not proactive. It is priced as it is because only 12 wickets have fallen in two days. It deals only with the here and now and does not factor in the future: the probability of England amassing a 200-run lead, only 128 runs away.

With Cook seemingly impossible to remove and Kevin Pietersen finally releasing his ego from his travel bag, England should pass that mark soon after lunch on day three. If they manage to push on from there, England should be around the [1.40] mark on declaration.

The clue to the amount of trading you could do with England at their current odds is in Australia's price of [30.0]. They are out of it. When you have only two realistic outcomes - England and the draw - backing and laying becomes easy as the two vie for favouritism, flip flopping for wickets and runs.

By taking the [1.77] about England, think ahead to what you will be able to do with an early breakthrough for the hosts with the ball. Or a two-wicket burst after a 50- or 60-run partnership.

Alternatively you could back England and let it ride. In our in-running blog - which returns tonight to take you through the first session - we advised a back of England at [2.00]. It was a keeper. The [1.71] is the same. England to win.

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