Live Blogs / Ed Hawkins / 05 January 2011 /

Ed Hawkins was blogging until lunch as England continued to grind Australia down at the SCG. Join in with the fun by following him on Twitter here

LUNCH 01.31 Eng 636-9, lead by 356
So that's it, folks. I'm off to bedfordshire. England are embarrassing Australia, who must be demoralised. Moving forward, we expect the draw price to continue to shorten with any semblance of a partnership (see 01.18). Remember the importance of the heavy roller. Remember that whatever happens in the remaining two sessions (well, not anything because England could bowl them out) there are another 90 overs tomorrow. In the last five fourth innings in Tests at Sydney, a wicket has fallen (on average) every eight overs. There are 63 overs left today. Everything should be pretty clear. England [1.49] and the draw [3.05]

01.21 Eng 630-9
Wally of the year
I was going to call this 'woman of the year' but then realised it would be offensive. There is nothing inferior about the fairer sex. Indeed, most could have done a better job than Andrew Hilditch as chairman of selectors of the Australia Test team. Hilditch needed to grow a pair as Australia came under pressure in the Ashes. Instead, like an epileptic at a strobe show he jerked and twitched. He has used 17 players, including the in-out-in selections of Mitchell Johnson and Doug Bollinger, drafted in Phil Hughes as an opener who was dreadfully out of form and elevated Steve Smith to the sixth best batsman in the country. It is so stunningly inept it is almost commendable.

01.18 Eng 629-9
"Why are England [1.50]?" said Ian Pearce a few moments ago. Good question. They should be much shorter, of course. The answer is India. The money from India drives the market and in that country they are obsessed with the draw. So the stalemate is artificially big. As we've said earlier in the blog, England were a mortgage job. But our top bet of the day was the lay of a fifth day evening session finish. That is effectively laying the draw. If you haven't had a bet yet, you can lay it still at around [2.50]. It is the same as a lay of the draw but at a better price. Hell, both the match odds draw and eve sesh finish could shorten even more. When the heavy roller goes on when Australia bat, batting could look a little easier and it will be panic on the streets of Lucknow.

01.07 Eng 617-9
Chokers of the year
Step forward - don't trip up now - Somerset. Runners-up in three competitions they are the outfit punters will avoid like the dishevelled and crazed sorts you get on night buses which, ironically, is probably the state most of the Somerset players found themselves in. Defeats in the Twenty20 Cup and C&G Trophy finals and Championship heartbreak would be enough to drive anyone to hit the cider hard. South Africa, as is their wont, let down a relative army in the Twenty20 World Cup but, really, there is nothing new in that.

01.06 Eng 611-9
England are [1.50] and the draw is [3.00]. The big fluctuations will come when Australia bat.

WICKET 01.02 Eng 609-9
M Prior c Haddin b Hilfenhaus 118

00.58 Eng 605-8
The Man of the Year award has been well received. Stuart Riley: "Loving man of the year shout, even Sachin wouldn't mind losing to him." Tommy Berdanis: "Sachin? Kallis? Interesting, obviously cricket was not the only criteria. Good choice then." The last word goes to Bradley Colmans, though. "My man of the year is Trott, just for being so OCD that he even marked the pitch after the winning runs were made."

WICKET 00.49 Eng 589-8
T Bresnan c Clarke b Johnson 35

00.46 Eng 584-7, lead by 304
Geoffrey Boycott sees no reason for England to declare before lunch. He does not see the point of giving them even the slimmest of hope in this Test. "England don't want a naughty session at the end of day five." I thought perhaps 600 might be the declaration point but with five sessions in the game after lunch, England have all the time in the world. "It might be tough for the Australian bowlers and fielders, it's a helluva lot tougher if your house is surrounded by water." Geoffrey's take on the flooding in Queensland. Next week: Geoffrey on inner city poverty.

00.30 Eng 573-7
Man of the year
Zulqarnain Haider or the Incredible Zulq as we like to call him here. The Pakistan wicketkeeper walked out of his team's tour of Dubai in November claiming that he had been threatened by spot-fixers, thus becoming the first international player to make a tangible stand against corruption. That stories emerged that there were 'religious' reasons for his departure was wholly in keeping with a sport which is all too eager to look the other way.

00.25 Eng 567-7
101 not out for Prior. His fourth Test ton, the fastest Ashes century since Ian Botham's 86-ball ton in 1981 at Headingley. Prior's came off 109 balls. The ninth ton by England in this series. Perhaps ENgland will just go mental now?

00.23 Eng 563-7
Just the 10 off the over from the incredible Steve Smith. he has the control of a psychopath. He is going for 5.2 an over. Honestly, how did Australia pick him? Did the guy win a competition off the back of a cereal pack?

00.17 Eng 547-7
Australia have a third new ball available. It would be a really special achievement if they managed to waste three in a row. It took them 23 overs to break through with the first and 36 with the second. Ordinarily, and we've said this every time they've had a new ball so it's a bit of a yawn, a new nut brings wickets and we bet accordingly. Can't be bothered with these Aussies. I don't trust them. By the way, Man of the Year award is coming up. Think it'll surprise you.

00.06 Eng 535-7
This is not particularly inspiring stuff, folks. England's run rate has dropped to 2.60 in the last 10 overs. As a result the draw is coming in. It is [3.15] now. Michael Holding, speaking about a possible declaration, says England will just keep on batting because they don't need to win. So the draw will shorten with time.

23.57 Eng 527-7
Vishal says: "Man of year Sachin for scoring 200, team of year for winning most matches." I presume he means India there. Stuart Riley adds: "Chokers of the year, SA this World Cup, man of the year - Sachin, no-one else. Wally - Asif."

23.53 Eng 525-7
Team of the year
England's World Twenty20 winners have to pick up this gong. Having been hopeless at the shortest format of the game, they reinvented themselves. The victory in the Caribbean was stunning in its simplicity - no side seemed to trouble them. What was also great was England's use of stats. Apparently England coach Andy Flower loves them. They give him an edge. They give punters an edge too and for that reason we're all one big happy family. Cosy eh?

23.41 Eng 524-7
By the way, this is a very special edition of this blog. Yes, you fell honoured don't you? This evening I shall be giving my awards for the year 2010 in the following categories: Team of the Year, Chokers of the Year, Man of the Year, Wally of the Year.

23.34 Eng 523-7
Had a look at the weather forecast. We might get a shower today or tomorrow and will check on the weather radar to see if we can manage a clever trade. Meanwhile, Mitchell Johnson is bowling tripe. Again. England's run rate in the last 10 overs (we're in the ninth today) is 3.2.

23.15 Eng 497-7
This morning in our analysis we advised a lay of the fifth day evening finish at [3.15]. The article is here. The good news is that it still available to lay around the [3.00] mark. If you can't be bothered to read the whole piece, this is the general gist: Australia have won their last seven Tests at Sydney and in those seven matches, an average of 338 overs have been enough to produce a result. So far we have had 247 overs and with 90 to be bowled in a day, by the close of day four we will have had 337. A wicket has fallen every 15 overs in this Test and we should expect that number to fall as the surface deteriorates. Indeed, in the last five Test third-innings at the SCG, a wicket falls on average every nine overs. That gives us more than enough breathing space.

23.10 Eng 493-7
Australia bowled 35 overs in the first session yesterday. That is the key stat when considering a morning session runs wager. You can back and lay respectively at [1.73] and [1.80] for 100 runs or more. Likewise at [2.08] and [3.00] for 110 runs or more. Personally a lay of the former might be the way to go. Sure, England are utterly dominant but Australia are not far off from the bowlers and there is a chance that the tourists could be bowled out before the 35. The run rate for 100 or more is a pretty easy [2.85], though so it is all about Australia's ability to take wickets.

23.00 Eng 488-7
Here are the prices: Australia [80.00], England [1.44] and the draw [3.30]. The England price is probably a mortgage job to be frank but we try to be a bit cannier on this blog. The draw price interests us. If we can get [2.50] to lay we might snaffle it. The stalemate price will dip if England are boring this morning and no wickets fall. Likewise if Australia start well in their innings.

22.55 England 488-7, lead by 208 runs
Let's not get too weepy but this could be the last day of this Ashes series. Sniff! Paul Collingwood, perhaps sensing the mood, has announced his retirement from Test cricket. It is the right decision. if England win this Test, there is is no better way to out. Otherwise, we expect England to continue to wear down this Australia team. They are dominant, which makes wagering difficult but do stick around.

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