Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 05 January 2011 /

Ed Hawkins, weary of Australia's useless bowling attack, uncovers a value wager to keep your interest going as England dominate at the SCG

"If we can get a 180 to 200-run lead, on the last day of the SCG Test, I'm confident we can still win the game." That was Michael Clarke taking a trip to the land of fairies and goblins after another day of Australia banging their heads against the turf at the SCG.

Just to put Clarke's mindset in perspective, Australia would need to score at least 400 to make that happen, something they (and far better outfits than this one to boot) have managed only 10 times since 1997. Clarke is bewildered. Australia are beaten.

It is becoming so easy for England now it is almost boring. Australia had more than a squeak at the start of the day and they were still in the game at lunch. But in the morning when conditions were useful for bowlers, they were dreadfully wasteful.

Ben Hilfenhaus thought it would be a good idea to pepper James Anderson with short balls while Mitchell Johnson is so out of control that a straight jacket can be the only answer.

When they had the new ball after lunch, with England still trailing by three runs, it would have been perfectly acceptable to back the hosts at [7.00] in the anticipation that even this Australia attack would be able to winkle one out. But no. It took another 35 overs from the second new ball to get rid of Alastair Cook.

Cook, who has broken so many records that Guinness might be in touch to discuss an edition of the famous tome dedicated solely to him, was typically unflashy on his way to his third century of the tour. Ian Bell, who started quietly, completed a deserved ton at a strike rate of 49.5. England were twisting the knife ... slowly.

All now remains is for England to finish the job and become the first side to win an Ashes series in Australia since 1987. But when will they manage it?

Australia have won their last seven Tests at Sydney and in those seven matches, an average of 338 overs have been enough to produce a result. So far we have had 247 overs and with 90 to be bowled in a day, by the close of day four we will have had 337.

A finish on the evening of day four is [3.50] while a day five first session finish is [3.65]. The best bet, however, is a lay of a day five evening session finish at [3.15]. We are effectively laying the draw and given there is a discrepancy between that and the draw lay price - which is [3.35] - it is value.

A wicket has fallen every 15 overs in this Test and we should expect that number to fall as the surface deteriorates. Indeed, in the last five Test third-innings at the SCG, a wicket falls on average every nine overs. That gives us more than enough breathing space.

Recommended bet: lay day five evening session finish at [3.15]

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