ATP Tour Betting: All change at the top in July

General / Matthew Walton / 04 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

July saw some intriguing results in men's tennis. Matthew Walton's here to tell you why, with a little bit of help from Betting.Betfair.com, you could have seen them coming and had a very profitable July.

July was the busiest month of the year so far with no fewer than nine tournaments being staged in a hectic period of action. This spell marks the transition from Europe to North America, as we move on from Wimbledon and now begin the steady build up to the US Open at Flushing Meadows in late August.

Such a transition has also seen the changing of the guard at the top of the ATP Rankings as Roger Federer's seemingly eternal grip on the No.1 spot (held for over four years) has slipped as his nemesis, Rafael Nadal, slowly but surely assumed the mantle of best player in the world. The Spaniard was No.2 for over three years himself!

The month has also seen three players win their maiden titles (Hanescu in Gstaad, Del Potro in both Stuttgart and Kitzbuhel as well as Montanes in Amersfoort) but a few familiar names have also got their hands on some silverware as Fabrice Santoro, Gilles Simon, Tommy Robredo and - guess who? - Rafael Nadal have also been successful.

Below, you'll see a run-down of the main events for the month of July and then, as is our customary monthly practice, we'll review these events with reference to some of our previous articles (just to make sure you've been paying attention!).





A few familar names in those lists, a few surprises. But were the results totally unexpected? Could some of our earlier discussions have provided YOU with profits had you followed our advice? Here's a few to get you thinking ...


The Lays Of 2008

We pinpointed a number of players who we felt were due to struggle in 2008. All had won tournaments last year, all were familiar names on the circuit. Players like Haas, Canas, Hewitt, Chela, Ljubicic have all come up short - just as we predicted. In fact, from nine players mentioned just one, Andy Roddick, has been successful in 2008 and all missed the boat in July.

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The Mysterious World Of Seeding Committees

We've long championed the cause of the underdog, to the point where we continually question the value of a slavish following of the seeding lists. Take a look at the above table, only one top seed won an event (let alone make the final) as there have been three wins for the No.2 seeds, and one win apiece for No.3, No.5 and No.7 with two non-seeded winners. Remember, these are little more than educated guesswork by a group of misguided committee members!

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Why It Pays To Oppose The Logical View

The natural assumption is the further we get into tournaments the more competitive they become and so the matches last longer. Not so. If you look at the 46 events completed so far this year, only 19 have gone to a deciding set in the final. That's just 41%. Surely we should be seeing more deciders going the distance? No again, the statistics tell us that as we get nearer to the conclusion of a tournament the matches become shorter - not longer.

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Average Players Don't Defend Their Titles

So far in 2008 we've only seen Rafael Nadal (Monte Carlo, Barcelona, French Open) plus Fabrice Santoro (Newport) and Ivo Karlovic (Nottingham) defend their titles. We asserted only 'special' players can defend their crowns the following year and even Santoro and Karlovic won on a specialist surface i.e. grass. If you're looking at a tournament, generally the first name to cross off the list of potential winners is last year's champion.

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Countries Of Origin, Where Do Winners Come From?

There are some fertile breeding grounds for winners on the ATP Tour - America, Argentina, Russia, France, Germany. However, none are as prolific as Spain. We've seen seven different Spaniards win on tour this year (Almagro, Ferrer, Robredo, Granollers, Montanes, Verdasco and Nadal) and it was the same in 2007. Knowing which countries provide the winners is another aid in the never-ending search for winners.

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Plenty of food for thought in those pieces. Make sure you look through them and take a minute or two to consider their value in finding winners. It's vitally important to consider every possible angle, nothing should be discounted.

Moving on, we also provide a monthly chart of who's hot and who's not on the ATP Tour. A few players to note and a few to swerve in the upcoming events. As per usual here's a few names for your notebook.





We've another action-packed month on tour in August. First there's the small matter of the Olympics in Beijing, and then we head into the final Grand Slam of the year with the US Open at Flushing Meadows - which promises to be one of the most open Opens(!) in many a year.

Remember to employ some of the lessons you've learned here and you're sure it will improve your profits on Betfair.