General / Matthew Walton / 28 December 2007 / 1

Matthew Walton picks the big names who are set to lose a little of their 'big'-ness...

In last week's feature we discussed the way in which 2008 could develop. Broadly speaking, who will be the players to follow for the coming year - the new champions, the defending champions and the maiden winners of the new campaign.

This time around we're looking at the flipside. For every winner there must be a loser and here we'll discuss a number of players for whom we predict a poor year. Players to avoid in 2008 or, more to the point, players who you should be considering as potential lays for the new season.

Clearly we're not talking about the Federers and Nadals of this world, but likewise we're not going to list a long line of no-hopers who will never generate the interest (or, more importantly, the liquidity) to provide potential profits.

The criteria is that all must be tournament winners/finalists in 2007 and all must be familiar names. Such names will arouse exchange interest and that notoriety can trigger an avenue for profit.

After all, the risk/reward of laying is clear for all to see but if we're just going to look at players who are big prices [34.0] and the like then there's no point in getting excited ... we can all pick out the Benjamin Beckers from the Boris Beckers.

So, here's half a dozen players who we believe are in for a rough 2008. All are household names, all are well-capable of winning but all, we would argue, are ripe for the taking this coming year.

Andy Roddick was twice a winner in 2007 but those events (Queen's and Washington) weren't the strongest affairs. He hasn't kicked on under the tutelage of Jimmy Connors and seems to be slowly fading out of the top ten, against whom he has a very poor record.

Tommy Haas won in Memphis during the year but the German is no spring chicken and clearly must consider his best days to be behind him. He's capable of inspired one-off performances but looks susceptible to young, improving talent.

Guillermo Canas crowned a meteoric return from obscurity with a win in Costa Do Sauipe and followed that up with two amazing wins over Federer in North America. However, the Argentine's year fell badly away after those exploits and further success is harder to predict.

Lleyton Hewitt has won every year on tour since '98 but this might be the time for the sequence to come to an end. Injuries and a young family have either hampered him or changed his focus. He might be capable of an Agassi-esque renaissance but 2008 looks likely to be a tough year.

Carlos Moya continued to roll back the years with a win in Umag but the veteran Spaniard is surely coming to the end of his powers. Wonderfully talented but equally flawed, Moya's run of eight years with at least one ATP crown looks severely under threat.

Juan Ignacio Chela is another clay courter who looks set for a winless 2008. Chela did manage a win in Acapulco but the rest of his year was solid as opposed to spectacular. He's capable of more success but others may now be moving ahead of him in the race.

Other than these players there's a few more who look vulnerable such as Ivan Ljubicic, Tomas Berdych and Jarkko Nieminen. All three are in or around the world's top 20 but none enjoyed a particularly fruitful 2007 (and that's even allowing for the fact that both Berdych and Ljubicic won and Nieminen was a RU).

Given the list of names mentioned, all of whom have at least been finalists in 2007, there's enough talent there to win more tournaments, unquestionably. However, the purpose of this piece isn't to state categorically that these players will never win again.

Look at the events they have won though, all generally 'B' list affairs. The view is that these guys are showing signs of decline and in order to make a profit you have to start opposing them before they tail off completely.

As the saying goes - When did Noah start to build the Ark? Before it started raining not after.

That's why Marat Safin isn't on the list or Juan Carlos Ferrero or Dominik Hrbaty. They have all fallen off the radar but these guys are still available for our benefit if, and only if, we deal with them in the appropriate manner.

Let us know what you think. If there are any other potential under-achievers out there for 2008 we'd like to hear about them.

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1. Scott Ferguson | 03 January 2008

   Big call on Hewitt - under the tutelage of Tony Roche now I think he's more likely to climb again than fall, but the glory days of top 5 are behind him.

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