Truths, Lies and Tennis Statistics / Matthew Walton / 13 December 2007 /

"Magical" Matthew Walton tells us who are the most successful tennis nations and what we can learn from studing this

Looking through the list of tournament winners for 2007 we're presented with the familiar names such as Federer, Nadal, Djokovic et al. However, turning the table on its head and listing the winners by their country of origin, as opposed to their name, is rather more enlightening. All the more so given our never-ending search for winners.

After all, over the past couple of months we have left no stone unturned in our pursuit of betting success. We have studied the effects of age, seeding, past victories, recent form, home advantage and all manner of other potential reasons which can explain why certain players win certain events. This study of nationality, therefore, is another means of adding to the indentikit profile we are creating off the most likely suspects for outright betting success.

The better idea we have of who is going to win an event the better use we can make of the exchanges!

There are a few surprises when you look down the list of winners. If you had to give an immediate answer, and you had no prior warning of what the question would be, which country would you say was the most successful? This country has both the most tournament winners and the highest number of runners-up during 2007. It sits well clear of all other countries in the listings ... you should already have made your mind up by now.

The fact that this country has only won the Davis Cup on two occasions is something of a surprise as well given that five different players won titles in 2007 and another three were runners-up. That's some strength in depth.

Anyway, Spain is the answer you should have said.

Elsewhere the list is illuminating in the fact that it ably represents the demise of American tennis (just two titles apiece this year for Roddick and Blake) and a fairly miserable year for the Russians as well (again just four titles as only Davydenko (1), Youzhny (1) and Tursunov (2) recorded wins). We also didn't see a single win for a Swede and just one for Australia (Hewitt, who else?). All four nations are, or were, huge players on the world stage.

France maintained a very healthy number with 7 titles and 8 runners-up by a total of nine different players! And, as per usual, the Argentine haul was impressive with 7 wins and 4 runners-up.

Mentions have also to go out to the countries with star individuals who allow their homelands to punch well above their weight (Federer for Switzerland, Djokovic for Serbia and Murray for GB).

These findings are helpful in teaching us general rules about certain country's players. For example, the supposed breeding grounds of the clay-courters such as Spain and Argentina clearly produce the most rounded and versatile players. Their success rate away from their natural surface is plain for all to see. Flip that on its head and you can say that the USA don't travel too well and France has some tennis academy structure given the number of top notch players it churns out (the LTA, please take note).

The fact that tennis is an individual sport and not a team event does render the importance of national boundaries as a secondary consideration. If a Swiss player is playing a German we shouldn't necessarily expect the Swiss to win simply because his country stands higher in the table - because if he's not Roger Federer then the chances are that he's no great shakes. It's the player himself who demands the most interest not just his country of origin.

That said, we should be prepared to study any pattern which is presented to us in order to improve our chances of success. Undoubtedly certain countries do produce better quality players than others, and more likely tournament winners than others, so a knowledge of where these countries lie in a league table can be used to good effect by the shrewd exchange operator.

Are there any particular strategies that you employ or would like investigating? By all means let us know if you have a particular system which helps you to find winners.

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