Grand National Betting / Graham Cunningham / 11 April 2012 /

The field is slowly taking shape and Betfair's 2012 Grand National market is hotting up accordingly. The near certainty of a wet week at Aintree will have a major impact on market moves and Graham Cunningham is aiming to get ahead of the game in part one of his Aintree In Running Blog.

No race on earth offers the chance for in running fun and games on Betfair like the Grand National.

The world's most famous steeplechase offers more than nine minutes of wild action in which your money leaves the ground 30 times, provided you are on a sound jumper, and the scope for trading in the win and place markets is tremendous.

As ever when National day looms, it's possible to argue some sort of case for practically every runner.

And some media pundits will be very happy to do just that to minimise risk of embarrassment, but if you study a 40-runner National at length there simply have to be fancied runners you just aren't interested in.

Lay the market leaders

The Gold Cup winner Synchronised is high on my chuckout list for the simple reason that I don't like his jumping or his chances of conceding lumps of weight to good horses even if he does get round. Betfair's Tony Calvin has already warned that Synchronised is likely to be under priced.

Junior is another market leader I'm happy to oppose due to concerns about fencing technique, while the improving On His Own jumped very well when running away with the Thyestes Chase but is hardly the value bet he might have been having contracted sharply in price with the news that Ruby Walsh will be aboard.

Cappa Bleu jumps very well and looks likely to give his many followers a bold run, while Chicago Grey looms large among a very powerful Irish contingent in which Seabass and Organisedconfusion also rate highly.

Four to back in the winner market

However, after the usual trawl through form book and video library the horses I'm keenest on for this year's National are Giles Cross, Becauseicouldntsee, Always Right and Ballabriggs.

Giles Cross jumps beautifully, stays forever and is one of the best handicapped horses in the field on Timeform ratings based on his narrow yet cosy defeat of Neptune Collonges at Haydock. The continued rain is a major plus and his easy going style gives him definite back to lay potential at the bottom of the weights if he jumps with his usual accuracy.

Becauseicouldntsee departed early last year but I'm not going to hold that against him. Noel Glynn's gelding is another on a very fair mark after a fine second in Sunnhillboy's Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham. He jumped very well on the pace that day and his fine effort over four miles at last year's Festival marks him as a more likely stayer than plenty in this huge field.

Any number of National winners have struggled to follow up the following year since the mighty Red Rum won this for the second time in 1974, but the smooth-travelling Ballabriggs has brighter prospects than most despite his big weight.

He took to the challenge of Aintree in rare style twelve months ago and has every chance of trading fairly short again this time around, while Always Right will be dismissed by most after being pulled up on his last two starts but is just the sort who could outrun his big price by a long way if a recent treatment to aid his breathing has done the trick.

The other horse who came closest to making the cut for the final four was Shakalakaboomboom, an improved horse this year with a jumping technique that looks tailor made for this unique challenge.

The staking plan

However, you have to draw a line somewhere and my plan for the 2012 National involves backing four horses with a view to saving the stake and more in running and laying two others for a place.

Conditions will play a massive part if the ground turns genuinely testing and history relates that the number of finishers will be in the low teens or less should the ground turn heavy.

Deep ground won't bother Giles Cross, who won't be far off favourite if the mud really is flying, while Becauseicouldntsee, Always Right and Ballabriggs all handle deep ground really well.

I'm happy to oppose Synchronised and Junior in the place market.

But the biggest hope of all is that the 2012 National is safe and celebrated for what it truly is.

The BBC may not want it any more but this remains by far the most significant event in the British racing calendar. And I can't wait for it.

2012 Grand National: In Running recommendations

2pts win Giles Cross at [16.0] and lay the stake off at [6.0] and [2.0] in running
2pts win Becauseicouldntsee at [30.0] and lay the stake off at [6.0] and [2.0] in running
1pt win Ballabriggs at [22.0] and lay the stake off at [8.0] and [2.0] in running
1pt win Always Right at [46.0] and lay off at [12.0] and [2.0] in running

Lay Synchronised for a place to win 1pt at [4.0]
Lay Junior for a place to win 1pt at [5.5]

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